How to Fix the AFC South: Part Four

The Tennessee Titans announced on Tuesday the decision to fire head coach Ken Whisenhunt. After a season and a half, his tenure ends with a 3-20 record. Clearly that was the driving force behind the decision to part ways midseason. But it underlies some concerning issues in Nashville. Like this team has to a lot of work to do to become a good team. I've devoted four pieces to fixing the AFC South, currently the NFL's worst division. You can find the previous three posts here. The finale for this project is dedicated to city in which I currently live. And it's also the most difficult of the bunch.

Pick the Right Coach and Quarterback

I don't think the Titans have a quarterback controversy on their hands, but they do have an interesting scenario. The Titans drafted Zach Mettenberger in the sixth round last year and he's shown some potential when starting. The Titans also drafted phenom quarterback, Marcus Mariota, with the 2nd overall pick in this year's draft. Clearly Titans management has invested a little more in Mariota and he will be given a bunch of chances to prove his worth. Mettenberger will never be afforded the same kind of opportunities. But I could easily see a few coaches (perhaps Whisenhunt was one of them) preferring Mettenberger over Mariota. And just months prior to the 2014 Draft, Mettenberger was thought of as a first round quarterback (and ACL tear and failed drug test at the combine ruined his draft value).  

As a rookie in 2014, Mettenberger started seven games and threw for eight touchdowns and seven interceptions with over 1,400 yards passing. Current rookie quarterback Mariota has thrown for nine touchdowns and five interceptions to go with over 1,200 yards passing in five starts. Not much separates them form a production standpoint. Both are extremely raw and have to be considered long-term projects. Mettenberger is your typical pro-style quarterback while Mariota is the athlete who would benefit more from a coach that caters to his abilities. Coaches are stubborn guys. Not all are willing to add option-style calls into their game plan.

Which makes you wonder about the coaching change. Whisenhunt is an offensive coach who brought with him a reputation for coaching up quarterbacks. I thought Mariota would benefit greatly from his direction. Maybe he doesn't like the mobility. Or thinks Mariota will get hurt all the time (he currently is, and will continue to be until that offensive line gets fixed). Or maybe it really was just the three wins in two seasons that got him canned. Regardless of the reason, he's no longer the head coach.

So here we go... There is one obvious coach out there for the Titans: Chip Kelly. The current head coach for the Philadelphia Eagles is sticking his neck out very far with his current roster (I wrote about some of those decisions earlier this year). If his experiments in 2015 fail, I could easily see him bolting for Nashville. That would reunite him with Mariota, the quarterback he recruited to Oregon and coached as a freshman and supposedly desperately wanted to draft for his Eagles. It's just too good to be true, and those rumors won't stop until Tennessee names a new head coach. 

Besides Kelly, the Titans need someone who is on board with Mariota and his skill sets. Jim Harbaugh will always get job offers. I don't think he's going anywhere, but he defined the careers of two mobile quarterbacks during his tenure with the 49ers. The Titans would be foolish not to make an offer. Some other names I like are Kevin Sumlin, the head coach at Texas A&M. He's shown an ability to spread the ball out in the SEC and develop dual-threat quarterbacks. Also, the Titans would be smart to take a look at Darrell Bevell, the offensive coordinator in Seattle. He's been in that position since 2011 and the Seawhawks use great planning to take advantage of Russell Wilson's mobility. 

Fix the Offensive Line

All the coaching in the world can't make up for a bad offensive line. It's currently ruining Seattle's hopes of a Super Bowl. The Titans have a disastrous line. What makes matters worst is the Titans took an offensive lineman with a top-11 pick in 2013 and 2014 with guard Chance Warmack and tackle Taylor Lewan. Warmack has never proved his draft value and has performed terribly and battled injuries. Lewan struggled his rookie year, but is finally settling in at left tackle. The other spots are occupied by journeyman Byron Bell at guard, and then rookies Jeremiah Poutasi and Andy Gallik. All three have underperformed.

Expecting your young unit to improve over time is certainly part of the strategy, but Tennessee needs to invest more than draft picks on lineman. The Titans have invested only 7 percent of their cap-space in the offensive line, which is the 30th lowest percentage in the league. So they should approach the 2016 offseason with the intent to buy at least two starters on that line. Mariota will not stay healthy if this unit does not improve.

Defense

The Titans have some pretty good statistics on defense, ranking fifth in yards per game. The secondary is only allowing 197.9 yards per game, which is the third lowest total in the league. Part of that is Jason McCourty, their top cornerback who has a reputation for physical play and might be the best tackling corner in the league. And Perrish Cox had a breakout year in 2014 with the 49ers. He looks like a very reliable number two cornerback. Facing Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel, Tyrod Taylor and Brian Hoyer for four of the seven games also helps keep the passing yardage down. 

And if teams can run the ball against you, there's no reason to risk throwing it. The Titans allow about 118 rushing yards per game. Combine a soft run defense with a minus 7 turnover margin (fourth worst in the NFL), and teams aren't going to need a lot of yards to beat you. Tennessee's ineptitude on offense makes the defense perform even worse. And the defensive unit lacks an playmakers to reset the balance.

More concerning than the present is the future. The Titans' five largest contracts all belong to defensive players. Three of those deals belong to McCourty (age 28), Derrick Morgan (26), and Jurrell Casey (25). Keeping your youth under contract is understandable. But safety Michael Griffin, at age 30, is under contract until he's 32. Linebacker Brian Orakpo signed a four-year deal in the offseason that will keep him around until he's 33. Griffin and Orakpo are exiting their prime but commanding a large portion of cap-space. Linebacker Wesley Woodyard is 28, and has three years left on his deal. He doesn't even start anymore. 

The Titans have the ninth highest percentage of cap-space devoted to the defense (39.7%). That sandwiches them between the Seattle Seawhawks and Green Bay Packers in percentage allotted. This is one of the times where you don't want your team keeping company with the best teams in the league. The Titans should be full of youth and cheap rookie deals, instead they are bloated with veteran contracts. The offense is in a full rebuild, and the defense needs to follow suit. A lot of these guys should be cut in the coming years. 

They don't  have anyone waiting in the wings either. Casey signed a big extension after his 10.5 season in 2013. He followed that up with just 5 sacks in 2014. He's only 25, so he should definitely be part of their future plans but his output is not lining up with his contract. Linebacker Zach Brown showed promise his first two years, but a pectoral injury in 2014 has set his career back. He shares the inside with Avery Williamson, who hasn't impressed that much. And Brown and Williamson man a position responsible for the poor performance against the run. The Titans have drafted a defensive player in the first round just twice since 2007 (Morgan and Griffin), and have only drafted a defensive player in the second round twice since 2010. The unit desperately needs a youth movement. 

The Future

The other three teams in the AFC South have a varying degree of talent and direction that the Titans lack. I have not advocated for the Colts, Jaguars, or Texans to blow their teams up and go through a rebuilding process. But everything about fixing the Titans requires time and starting over. The defense is old and needs younger players. Getting rid of those veteran contracts cannot be done in just one offseason.

And the offense is going to need lots of time as well. Mariota is a project. The best thing they can do right now is protect him with a stronger offensive line and make sure he has a head coach that can run an offense through him. Most of the players that will make this team good again are not on the roster yet. That means Tennessee is still working on a long rebuild. It's going to be a couple of rough years in Nashville.