The Boston Red Sox Continue to Puzzle

Reports say the Red Sox and INF Yoan Moncada agreed to a  staggering $31.5 million signing bonus. With the way international free agents work in the MLB, the move — when adding the contract and the various fees and penalties for international spending — will cost the Red Sox $63 million to sign the 19-year-old prospect from Cuba.

This announcement follows a season in which Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jose Abreu all played in the 2014 All-Star Game. All three left Cuba and signed large contracts before playing at any level of American baseball. GMs and scouts are clearly comfortable with the translation of talent from Cuba to the major leagues.

But Moncada is 19. He has performed well in national youth leagues, but has played only one season of professional Cuban baseball. Granted, a season in which he posted a .414 on-base percentage at just age 17, but it remains an incredibly small sample size. While the likes of Puig, Cespedes, and Abreu provided limited data before defecting, they performed regularly against top Caribbean competition. Abreu signed with the Chicago White Sox at age 27. Puig signed a seven-year deal at age 21, and spent a year in the minor leagues.

With Dustin Pedroia anchoring second-base, and Xander Boegaerts set at shortstop, Moncada seems destined for a few years of development in the minors. This essentially makes him a first-round draft pick. A very expensive draft pick. Correction, an insanely expensive draft pick. Moncada's $31.5 million contract is more than the rookie deals of Steven Strasburg and Bryce Harper combined. The talent is undeniable, but unlike his Cuban predecessors he is not a finished product and paying for potential comes with a much higher risk.   

While MLB promotes a free market in terms of payroll, they attempt to protect smaller teams through the amateur draft. Perennial big spenders like the Red Sox forfeit first- and second-round picks to make big splashes in the free agent market. In international free agency, the MLB has instituted bonus pools based on a team's record from the previous season. Exceeding the pool triggers a tax, an attempt to limit the huge contracts Japanese and Caribbean amateurs were commanding. The Red Sox, with their pool all but depleted this year, scoffed at the tax and signed Moncada anyway, essentially doubling the financial commitment. In signing Moncada, a product years away from playing in the MLB, the Red Sox may have out-priced smaller market teams from Cuba and provided a way for big-spending teams to, on one end, dole out huge contracts to top free agent MLB talent, and add top quality potential in the international market on the other end.     

Impact on the future aside, the Moncada signing adds to an already puzzling Red Sox offseason. I recently included them on my Top Five list of worst offseason moves, as discussed in our podcast. When I read that Jon Lester signed his mega-deal with the Chicago Cubs, I assumed that the Red Sox just lacked the money to commit to the pitcher despite what seemed to be mutual interest in a reunion. But a couple months later, they throw more than $60 million at a 19-year-old. They very easily could have kept the money pledged to Moncada and new addition Hanley Ramirez and added Lester and Nelson Cruz. And why not keep Cespedes as well? With the additions of Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, the Red Sox are clearly not rebuilding, yet they don't seem committed to winning this season. All these concerns will prove moot if Moncada lives up to the lofty expectations, but in 2015 these questions deserved to be asked.