Some Unlikely Heisman Candidates
/My brother had to stop me from listing off more Heisman candidates on our last episode. So I decided to toss the rest of my candidates onto a nice blog post. Projecting Heisman winners is a difficult task. The candidate needs some combination of statistics and big-game heroics while leading a successful team (nine of the last twelve Heisman winners played in the championship game). It also helps to be a quarterback (winners of 13 of the last 15). But there are a handful of non-quarterbacks that are poised to have big years and on big teams and it's time to give them some due and make a case for their Heisman campaigns. But first, a question:
Can A Defensive Player Win the Heisman in 2015?
In the last 15 years of Heisman voting, only three defensive players have finished in the top five: Manti Te'o, Tyrann Mathieu, and Ndamukong Suh. Te'o and Matthieu were the unquestionable leaders and best players on two BCS Title Game-bound teams (both teams with sub-par quarterback play as well). And Suh. Well. How could you not vote for this dude:
In 2015 we have three defensive leaders on three teams with national championship hopes. They also happen to mirror one of those three previous Heisman finalists.
Adoree' Jackson- USC
Jackson is a great cover corner and talented kick returner that moonlighted at wide receiver in 2014. As a freshman, he returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and caught three more. He broke up 9 passes, forced a fumble, and was credited with 45 tackles. Of the the three previous defensive finalists mentioned, his stat-line is most similar to Mathieu, who returned punts, played great in coverage, and forced an amazing 6 fumbles in 2011. If Jackson can increase his output in all three facets of his game, and USC is in College Football Playoff contention, he could garner a lot of surprise votes at the end of the season. His profile would surpass that of Mathieu and the Charles Woodson comparisons would begin. The only caveat is that, unlike Mathieu, Jackson plays on a team with a big time Heisman candidate in Cody Kessler.
Scooby Wright III- Arizona
Scooby Wright III finished in the top-ten in Heisman voting in 2014. I guess that should be grounds for disqualification for being put on this list, but I honestly had no idea the linebacker existed until I looked at the current Vegas odds to win the Heisman. He's on there. Behind 31 offensive players, including his own teammate, Nick Wilson. He certainly has the stats to warrant Heisman consideration. In 2014 he finished with 163 tackles, 31 tackles-for-loss, and 15 sacks. Those numbers are out of this world for a linebacker. His total tackles were the seventh most in NCAA history, and his sack total was good for 4th in among FBS schools last year.
Arizona is a ranked team in a stacked Pac-12. There are some heavy hitters ranked ahead of them in UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Arizona State. If they want to make some noise in the CFP, they'll most likely have to go undefeated. A very tall order in this conference. But if they do, it will be because Wright is having another amazing year. And just like Te'o, he'd be the hands-down best player on a team playing for a national title. That could go a long way in garnering Heisman votes.
Robert Nkemdiche- Ole Miss
Robert Nkemdiche was the highest ranked recruit coming out of high school in 2013. In 2014, as a sophomore, he switched from defensive end to defensive tackle and posted a modest line of 35 tackles, 2 sacks, and 4 tackles-for-loss. Many voters saw it fit to name Nkemdiche to second Team All-American honors, and consider him a first Team All-American heading into 2015. Either the hype is so large around Nkemdiche from his famous 2013 recruitment that it is still influencing voters and draft-pundits, or his impact on the field doesn't result in traditional statistics.
I'm inclined to think the latter and believe he's been such a talked-about athletic terror in the trenches since high school that he has only ever faced double teams from SEC offensive linemen. That isn't enough to warrant any kind of Heisman consideration, but what if he starts putting up numbers in 2015? It would be the second coming of Suh, who put up 85 tackles and 12 sacks in his final season at Nebraska while facing constant double teams. Consistent pressure created from a defensive tackle is the most game-altering type of pressure. Nkemdiche would become a game-changer.
Ole Miss has the talent and the ranking to make a run for the College Football Playoff, and at the least will have some marquee games against Alabama and Auburn. If they win those two, the SEC would be theirs for the taking, further elevating Nkemdiche's status and, depending on the numbers, making him a Heisman candidate.
So will a defensive player finish in the Top 5 in Heisman voting? It's certainly possible, but their fate is greatly tied to team performance. An amazing statistical season for a quarterback is good enough to get some votes (looking at you, Colt Brennan), the same can't be said for defensive players. And predicting a CFP-bound team that lacks a singular offensive force is near impossible. My three candidates all have the talent and play on the right roster to get invited to New York, but I would absolutely not bet anything on it. So here are some dark horse offensive players I like:
Brady Kaaya- Miami (Fl.)
The ACC quietly (or unquietly) has a young crop of talented quarterbacks. Only 12 true freshmen QBs saw playing time in the Power 5, and Kaaya was one of two true freshmen to start every game. Obviously there were the usual ups and downs that come from giving the keys to a Power 5 offense to an 18 year-old. But the results were ultimately positive. Kaaya threw for more than 3,000 yards to go with 26 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions. Completely respectable numbers.
The Hurricanes aren't slated to do much in the ACC, but they certainly have chances to raise their profile. Before conference play they get a chance to take on Nebraska and Cincinnati. And when conference play kicks off they will challenge the three conference favorites in Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Clemson. If they play spoiler and get a ranking themselves it will be largely in part to Kaaya's improvement and success.
The reason why Kaaya won't even come close to Heisman success? The 'Canes lost WR Phillip Dorsett, RB Duke Johnson, TE Clive Walford, and OLs Erek Flowers and Jon Feleciano to the 2015 NFL Draft. That's a lot of offensive leadership and firepower to replace. Kaaya might be in for a long 2015, but a nice showing could set up a Heisman campaign for 2016
Royce Freeman- Oregon
While Marcus Mariota passed and scrambled through 2014 en route to a Heisman Trophy, the freshman Freeman quietly ran for over 1300 yards and 18 touchdowns. And for some reason, most people thought Freeman would have to earn back his starting role in 2015. Thomas Tyner's season injury took care of that controversy, and plants the burden of offensive responsibility squarely on Freeman's shoulders.
Oregon will always be known for the flashy offense Chip Kelly made famous, but at the center of it lies a familiar core: a big, powerful running back that can get over 5 yards per carry when all the bubble screens burst and the read-option gets read. Freeman was that back last year when the Ducks marched straight to a National Title Game. He's going to be that back again this year, and with Mariota gone, and an FCS transfer learning this offense in just one month, Freeman should actually get some credit this time around. If the Ducks make it back to the CFP (Chris says yes, they do), Freeman should be a Heisman finalist.
Corey Clement- Wisconsin
The Wisconsin running back factory is a well-oiled machine by this point. Clement, a junior in 2015, spent his first two years at Wisconsin playing behind Melvin Gordon. In 2014, while Gordon was blowing away fans with the greatest statistical season from a running back since Barry Sanders, Clement found a way (and touches) to run for over 900 yards and 8 touchdowns himself. Clement gives the Badgers no reason to shy away from the run in 2015.
In the past four years, the feature back at Wisconsin has averaged 303 carries in a season. In 2011, 2013, and 2014, only seven FBS running backs eclipsed 300 carries. And 2012 only saw six reach that mark. In other words, Clement is going to get such a high volume of work that we will have to talk about him come the end of 2015.
So there are some dark horse candidates that I like. On the eve of the 2015 season, we've been so starved for football it's easy to make a compelling Heisman case for 50 different players. Only time will tell, but I'd be very interested in hearing about some other out-of-left field candidates. Let me know!