Top Storylines at the 2016 Australian Open
/The 2015 tennis season can be summed up in five words — Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams.
With all the focus on Williams at the U.S. Open (and rightfully so), I think people forgot just how close Djokovic came to winning a Grand Slam. While Williams won the first three majors, and held all four at the same time, it was Djokovic who ultimately got to the finals of all four 2015 tournaments and was closer to capping a Grand Slam than Williams.
I’m not trying to undermine Williams’ achievement, rather highlight that tennis fans were just three combined matches away from witnessing something extraordinary — two Grand Slams in the same year.
The last person to pull off the feat was Steffi Graf, who won all four slams and the Olympic gold medal in 1988, capping the only Golden Slam in tennis history. Only three people have won a Grand Slam in the open era — Graff, Margaret Court and Rod Laver. Laver is the only player to do it twice, also winning all four in 1962. Don Budge was the first player to do it in 1938 and Maureen Connolly won hers in 1953.
Five players, six occurrences, and tennis fans almost got to witness two in one season. Simply amazing.
The Australian Open kick starts another tennis season with Williams and Djokovic entering as the favorites to not only win this tournament, but will likely be favorites to win every tournament in 2016. Djokovic is in the middle of his prime playing days while Williams hasn’t hit that post-30 slump yet.
But even though the spotlight is squarely focused on tennis’ most dominant players, there are still other intriguing questions that this season is sure to answer. Starting with the biggie:
Nadal's Health
Nadal had a frustrating 2015, to say the least. Not only did he fail to win a Grand Slam, but he didn’t even win an ATP Masters 1000 series tournament for the first time in his career.
Most notably, the Spaniard struggled on his surface of choice — the red clay. He failed to win a European clay court title entering the French Open for the first time since 2004, falling in the Monte-Carlo Masters, Barcelona Open, Madrid Open and Italian Open. He then lost to Djokovic in the French Open quarterfinals.
He completed a 61-20 record and failed to make it past the second round of Wimbledon and the third round of the U.S. Open. He saw his ranking drop two spots to No. 5 and amassed just three titles.
This isn’t the first time injuries have dogged Nadal’s career. He missed the 2014 U.S. Open and the Cincinnati Masters because of a right wrist injury and struggled with tendinitis in both of his knees in 2009, leading to his only other loss at the French Open (to Robert Soderling) and a withdrawal from Wimbledon.
His 2016 season has started on a high note, defeating Milos Raonic to claim the Mubadala World Tennis Championship — an exhibition tournament held in the United Arab Emirates. While not the most prestigious title on the tour, it’s good to see Nadal playing, and winning, again.
He followed up this performance with a trip to the finals of the Qatar Open. And while Djokovic dispatched him with ease (6-1, 6-2), the fact that Nadal is back to reaching finals again is certainly encouraging for his prospects in 2016.
It’s hard to believe Nadal is only turning 30 in June, but as he continues to struggle with injuries one must wonder if he’ll be able to add to his impressive collection of 14 Grand Slams. If healthy, he’ll definitely challenge Djokovic throughout the season — particularly at the French Open.
Any Challengers?
Williams’ dominance of women’s tennis isn’t anything new. She holds 21 Grand Slam titles since 1999 and has won eight of the last 16 Grand Slams dating back to 2012 — reaching the finals of the 2011 U.S. Open.
Nobody is in her league. During that same three-year span the only players with multiple titles are Victoria Azarenka (2012 and 2013 Australian Open) and Maria Sharapova (2012 and 2014 French Open). But neither of them beat Williams in claiming those titles.
Sharapova held a 120-39 record against the rest of the Top 25 when she lost to Williams in the semifinals of Wimbledon, holding a winning record against all but two. She has lost 17-straight to Williams and is 2-18 all-time. The last time Sharapova beat Williams was at the Tour Championships in 2004, that’s more than 11 years ago.
The Australian Open is that it is traditionally Azarenka’s best tournament. Both of her slams came there and the only other Grand Slam final she’s reached is the U.S. Open — in 2012 and 2013. But both of her losses in the U.S. Open final came to Williams. Williams is 10-0 against Azarenka at Grand Slam tournaments, 17-3 overall and 5-3 in WTA finals. So while Azarenka may be Williams’ biggest “rival,” like Sharapova she is unable to usurp her on the biggest stage.
I said on our last podcast that Azarenka will win the Australian Open. While her peers — including Williams — struggle with injuries (though withdrawals in warm up tournaments are usually just precautionary), Azarenka did win her first title since 2013 at the Brisbane International and finished 2015 strong. I expect her to add to her Grand Slam collection in 2016, even if my Australian Open prediction doesn’t come true.
(Side note: Yes we did talk a very little bit of tennis on our last podcast. It’s at the end, though.)
Youth Movement
But perhaps Williams’ challenger lies in some of the many rising stars of women’s tennis — like Simona Halep. She’s currently ranked No. 2 in the world, turns 25 in September and reached the semifinals of the 2015 U.S. Open and the finals of the 2014 French Open. Though she did withdraw from a tune up tournament, as mentioned earlier these lower-tier withdrawals are mostly precautionary. She was back in action at last week’s Apia International.
Canadian Eugenie Bouchard — who is currently ranked No. 47 after reaching No. 5 in 2014 — has also shown potential at just 21-years old (turns 22 in February). She reached the finals of Wimbledon in 2014 and the fourth round of the last two U.S. Opens. Her last two Australian Opens have resulted in semifinal and quarterfinal appearances.
An unfortunate injury caused her to tumble down the rankings. She suffered a concussion when she slipped in the locker room at the 2015 U.S. Open and had to forfeit her fourth round match to…Roberta Vinci. The 32-year old Italian eventually ended Williams’ quest for a Grand Slam in the semifinals. One has to wonder how history would have changed had Bouchard not met with such an unfortunate fate.
And finally there is some hope for the American tennis pipeline, at least on the women’s side. A strong duo of Americans — Sloane Stephens and Madison Keys — showed potential in 2015.
Stephens is 22 and won her first title at the Citi Open in 2015, then just a week ago claimed her second title at the ASB Classic. She had a very strong 2013 — reaching the fourth round of all four majors including a quarterfinal appearance at Wimbledon and reaching the Australian Open semifinals. But since she’s only reached the fourth round three more times — twice at the French and at the 2014 Australian Open.
Her 2015 featured two first-round exits in Australia and the U.S. Open.
Perhaps Stephens is turning the corner, but if not, Keys is right there. She’s two years younger and has a WTA title under her belt — the 2014 Aegon International. Last year she reached the Australian Open semifinals, Wimbledon quarterfinals, U.S. Open fourth round and the third round of the French. She sports an all-time record of 8-4 at Australia, perhaps this is the year she breaks through to a major final.
And I didn’t forget Coco Vandeweghe, but other than her trip to the Wimbledon quarterfinals in 2015 her Grand Slam record consists of one third round appearance — at the 2015 Australian Open. We’ll see if she can take the next step, but she is older than both the aforementioned Americans (24).
Sooner or later Williams’ dynasty will fall, it happens to everyone. But will 2016 be the year a challenger emerges? Williams isn’t just the biggest American face on the women’s side, she’s the biggest face in American tennis period. She isn’t getting any younger, it’s time for someone on either side to step up and help carry the load.
Wrong place, wrong time
I’ve shown a lot of love for the ladies in this column, but the fact of the matter is the women’s side is far more intriguing to me than the men’s. Despite Williams’ dominance, she will turn 35 in September and a lot of young players are showing potential.
Don’t get me wrong, Williams will win at least one major. But I think 2016 is the year we see some new faces find consistency in women’s tennis.
However as long as Djokovic is healthy on the men’s side, he’s going to dominate again. He’s still in his prime at 28-years old (turns 29 in May) and is playing some of the best tennis ever. I think he flirts with a Grand Slam again and finally gets the missing feather in his career Grand Slam cap — the French Open.
Nadal’s return is intriguing and if healthy on the red clay he will challenge Djokovic at the French — a tournament he’s won nine out of 11 times. But who knows how long the Spaniard will stay healthy at this point his career.
Federer winning one more Wimbledon has been a sentimental story for the last two years, but each time Djokovic has bested him. I don’t see that changing now that Federer is a year older (and turns 35 in August).
If there is a challenger to Djokovic, it’s Andy Murray. Currently No. 3 in the world he has the same kind of potential, but just can’t seem to get past the Djoker. He also turns 29 in May and has two Grand Slams under his belt. He’s reached eight Grand Slam finals total and the six he lost came either to Djokovic in his prime or Federer in his — though the two he won came against Djokovic too.
Overall, however, Djokovic owns Murray 21-9.
The point is Murray is this generation’s Andy Roddick and I mean that with no disrespect. Roddick had the potential to win a ton of major championships, but he only won one — the 2003 U.S. Open. The five other times he reached the final — three times at Wimbledon and one other at the U.S. — he lost to Federer while the Swiss king was dominating tennis.
Murray has shown he can hang with the Big Three, and has achieved multiple-slams in his career, but with Djokovic playing at such a high level I don’t know if he’ll ever pile up the majors.
Federer, Nadal and Djokovic will go down as three of the five best tennis players ever. All have at least 10 Grand Slam titles and have combined to win 34 of the last 40 Grand Slams, and Djokovic is still in the middle of his prime. Federer is still ranked No. 2 despite his age and Nadal, if healthy, is the king of clay. Tennis fans have been truly blessed not only to see these three play, but have their respective primes overlap.
Just like Roddick, Murray has phenomenal talent. And just like Roddick he’s in his prime at the absolute worst time.
Dissecting the Draws
But to focus more on the present, both Australian Open draws produced some intriguing potential matchups. The men's draw is pretty balanced with Djokovic and Federer drawn into a semifinal collision while Murray got what I believe is a fairly easy path to the semifinals with David Ferrer his projected quarterfinal opponent the only real challenge. Nadal and Wawrinka are on a quarterfinal collision in Murray's half of the draw.
The fourth round could be really fun — Kei Nishikori vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could meet with the winner likely facing Djokovic and Tomas Berdych vs Marin Cilic could meet with a date against Federer on the line.
Nadal could have trouble getting to the quarterfinals as Gael Monfils is his projected fourth-round opponent. Ferrer's fourth-round draw is also very intriguing as he could face former No. 1 Lleyton Hewitt in second round. No. 10 John Isner is Ferrer's projected fourth-round opponent, and honestly this is Isner's best draw to the quarters in awhile. He just might end that drought dating back to the 2011 U.S. Open (which was the last time he, or any other American man, reached the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam).
On the women's side, Williams may hold the No. 1 seed, but she did not get the No. 1 draw. Former No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki would be her most likely fourth-round opponent and No. 5 Sharapova is her projected quarterfinal match. She'd face whoever comes out of No. 4 Agnieszka Radwanska's quarterfinal draw.
Radwanska could have the toughest, and most high profiled, second-round match of the entire tournament as she'll likely have to face Bouchard — who is not seeded because of the her aforementioned misfortunes at the U.S. Open.
Azarenka, despite her No. 14 ranking, was drawn into the bottom half. She is in Garbine Muguruza's quarterfinal and would meet the third-ranked player in the fourth round. No. 7 Angelique Kerber would be her most likely quarterfinal opponent.
No. 2 Halep got a manageable draw to the semis with No. 8 Venus Williams her likely quarterfinal opponent, though Keys would pose a tough test if that match materializes in the fourth round.
Stephens did not get a fortunate draw, projected to face Vinci in round three and Radwanska or Bouchard in round four. Vandeweghe squares off with Madison Brengle in an all-U.S. opening round. The winner likely faces Kerber as a significant underdog.
But the best part about a Grand Slam? A lot of these projected matchups won't come to fruition, because upsets happen early all the time. Still, I expect the top four men's seeds to advance with little resistance until the quarterfinals, Monfils to upset Nadal and Djokovic to win it all. As for the women, I'm calling a Bouchard run to the semifinals and Azarenka finally getting a win against Wiliams at a major in what should be a spectacular final.
Oh, and at least one American — male or female — will reach the quarterfinals.