How To Win Your March Madness Bracket Pool

It’s that time of the year, the time where offices everywhere spend way too much energy on trying to crack an unbreakable code — the March Madness bracket.

Every year people try to find the perfect combination, and since the odds of picking a perfect bracket are astronomical (you have a much better shot at the lottery), the next best thing is picking the Final Four. Or at least a combination that will allow you to win your bracket pool.

Luckily I’m here to help.

Last year I picked the Final Four for the first time in my more than 10 years of filling out brackets. I only ever fill out one — hate people who submit multiple brackets — and after I won I decided to “retire” from bracket pooling. The quotes are necessary, because there is a charity pool I’ll still compete in. The money goes to a good cause and while I don’t like the frustration of having a bracket, the tournament is still fun to follow. I don’t mind filling one out for a good cause.

Now that I am retired, I can dish out a few tips on how I approach the bracket. Take them for what their worth.

Tip No. 1: Diagnose the Field

Full disclosure here — I don’t always win. In fact while I usually do respectable, I rarely finish first. There have been years I pick a lot of Final Four teams — two, three and last year all four. And there was a run of three-straight where my Final Four teams all lost before the semifinals, even three out of four in the Elite Eight (that one really stung). My biggest advice is this: there are many philosophies, but above all else you still have to pick the winners.

Which is why before choosing a strategy, you need to get a sense of what kind of field your dealing with.

Before you advance a single team, read up on college basketball. Do a web search for some articles talking about the year. Were there a lot of articles focusing on a few dominant teams? Or one overwhelming team? Like in 2015 when Kentucky entered the field undefeated. Or are you finding that there isn’t a top team? That there is little separation between the teams at the top and the teams in the 10-20 range of the AP Top 25.

Last year there were two super teams — Kentucky and Duke — and two others in Arizona and Wisconsin that returned a lot from their deep tournament runs the year before. I had a strong feeling three of those four (Arizona and Wisconsin were in the same region) were going to the Final Four. And I was right.

Fast forward to 2016, and it’s a polar opposite. The No. 1 ranking has been a revolving door because no team has distanced itself from the pack. Six different teams — North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan State, Kansas, Oklahoma and Villanova — have all held the top spot. And only one, Michigan State, held it for longer than three-consecutive weeks (four). The Jayhawks held it for four weeks, in two different stints, and if they remain No. 1 (likely since they won the Big 12 Tournament), they’ll have the most weeks at the top with five.

Why is it important to diagnose the year? Because a season with few teams retuning Final Four experience and no overwhelming favorite lends itself to more upsets than one that doesn’t. And this year Kentucky, Duke and Wisconsin all lost a ton from their Final Four runs combined with no real team that’s filled the void means those No. 1 seeds might be in for a shorter than expected tournament.

Tip No. 2: Check the Rankings

It’s important to understand the difference between a team’s seed and a team’s AP Top 25 rank. A team is seeded for a variety of reasons, but the selection committee takes into account a team’s entire resume — or performance throughout the whole year.

The AP Poll does not care what happened in November, it’s a more accurate reflection of a team’s current performance. A team’s seed could benefit from a strong nonconference schedule, but if that team just lost three out of five it might not be ranked in the top 10. This is important to know, because if you pick a No. 7 seed that was boosted by a fast start in November/December, you may be overlooking the No. 10 seed that won nine of its last 10.

I prefer using the final regular season rankings, that don’t take into account conference tournament play, and then do a quick check to see how that team performed in its league tournament.

And for those of you who are unfamiliar with seeds at all, remember there are four of every seed. So for instance if a one seed is ranked four, that’s fine. If a one seed is ranked 10? Not so much.

A few teams that stand out this year:
— No. 2 Michigan State is a two-seed.
— No. 6 Oklahoma is a two-seed.
— No. 7 North Carolina is a one-seed.
— No. 8 Oregon is a one-seed.
— No. 10 Indiana is a five-seed.
— No. 20 Iowa is a seven-seed.

Tip No. 3: Pick the Final Four First

The basic premise of a bracket pool is you're awarded more points the further your team goes. Usually the bracket that picks the champion and most of the Final Four wins. Which is why I do not like to fill out my bracket in a traditional way. I always identify the four teams I feel most confident in winning their region and advance them to the Final Four. Then I pick my two finalists and my champion.

This way the truly best teams, the ones you’re most confident in, are filled in. Now you can’t accidentally knock them out early or pick a knee-jerk upset. They’re in the Final Four. But what this also does is identify expendable teams.

For instance — Say you think that West Virginia has a good chance at reaching the Final Four. The Mountaineers are the three seed in North Carolina’s bracket. By writing in West Virginia into the Final Four before filling out any other line on the bracket, you’ve made North Carolina expendable.

It’s important to know this, because any No. 1 seed that you deem expendable is a chance to make up some big points. Most people’s Final Four will consist of at least one No. 1 seed — it’s human nature to pick the best teams. North Carolina has the added bonus of having a large fan base and in general is extremely popular. Meaning a lot of people in bracket pools will pick the Tar Heels even if they don’t truly believe they’re the best.

You’ve made them expendable, so why not knock them out in the Sweet 16 and pick up even more points? I’m not advocating doing this for every expendable team, but if you’re not high on a team and you know they’re not going to be in your Final Four, you have an idea of where your calculated risks lie.

Final Tidbits
— No. 16 seeds are 0-124 against No. 1 seeds, only 15 of those games have been decided by single digits.
— No. 15 seeds are 7-117 against No. 2 seeds, though three of those upsets have occurred in the last four years.
— The only year all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four was 2008.
— At least one No. 5 seed has lost to a No. 12 seed in every tournament except 2007.

My Picks
Overrated Teams — Virginia, Oregon, Villanova, Duke
Underrated Teams — Kentucky, Iowa State, Iowa, Saint Joseph’s
Deep Sleeper — Connecticut
Two Bold Upsets — UConn over Kansas; Saint Joseph’s over Oregon

My Final Four — Miami, Xavier, Oklahoma, Michigan State
Championship — Michigan State over Oklahoma

Oh, and don’t forget my final tip: Above all else just trust your gut and have fun.