How the NBA Draft Lottery Impacts the Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers are well on their way to a third-straight trip to the NBA Finals. The last thing on their mind is the NBA Draft, especially since they currently don’t own any picks this year.

But that doesn’t mean the draft lottery on May 16 won’t have implications for them.

Two Eastern Conference teams — Boston (by virtue of swapping picks with Brooklyn) and Philadelphia — both have double-digit odds of winning the No. 1 pick and at minimum a strong chance of picking in the top three. Furthermore, the 76ers could wind up with two top five picks if the ping pong balls bounce them into the top three and the Lakers into the No. 4 spot, as Philadelphia gets the Lakers pick if it falls outside of the top three.

The Lakers have about a 47 percent chance of finishing in the top three and a combined 49 percent chance of picking fourth or fifth. They cannot pick lower than sixth. Essentially, it’s a coin flip as to whether or not the 76ers will wind up with two top seven picks (as Philadelphia cannot pick lower than seventh and has a 51 percent chance of drafting fifth or sixth).

Brooklyn (Boston), Phoenix and the Lakers wound up with the three worst records and thus the three best odds to be picking in the top three. But if Philadelphia pushes Los Angeles out, that gives the 76ers two top six picks, one in the top three, and a chance to add two strong rookies to a core that features Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid (if they can stay healthy).

But the bigger threat to Cleveland here is Boston. As you likely have heard, the Celtics finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference and are one series away from the NBA Finals, have a rising superstar in Isaiah Thomas, a strong young coach in Brad Stevens, and a deep supporting cast.

The Nets have a 64.3 percent of winding up in the top three, meaning it’s highly likely that one of the big three prospects — Washington point guard Markelle Fultz, Kansas small forward Josh Jackson or UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball — will wind up on the Celtics. To me, Jackson makes the most sense as Thomas has the PG position on lockdown.

A worse scenario for the Cavs would be if Boston somehow gets Jackson and frees up enough cap space to make a run at Utah’s dynamic forward Gordon Hayward, who played for Stevens at Butler. This will not be an easy task given the Celtics’ current cap situation, but general manager Danny Ainge has shown his ability to be creative before. I wouldn’t underestimate his ability to pull off a cap clearing trade that clears the path for a Hayward defection.

Thomas, Jackson and Hayward plus whatever’s left of the Celtics core could be a formidable force in the East.

But say Boston is unable to clear enough space, and realizes this going into the draft. Its not the only chip Ainge could play. Suppose the Celtics want to win now, that would mean acquiring a legitimate second superstar to play along Thomas. And if Boston is sitting there with a top three pick, there are certainly teams willing to push the reset button and build around one of the three aforementioned talents available there.

I’m talking about Indiana and Chicago, two teams who don’t look to be anything more than first-round fodder with stars whose clock towards free agency is ticking. A draft-day trade involving Boston’s top three pick for Paul George or Jimmy Butler would shakeup the balance of power in the East and all of a sudden the Celtics become a much stronger contender to LeBron James’ iron grip on the conference.

The Celtics would still have to send a significant part of their core back in the trade, but Boston has enough pieces to absorb those losses. Whatever is leftover surrounding Thomas, Butler/George and Al Horford would be a significant force in the Eastern Conference.

And then the nuclear scenario for Cleveland — Boston flips its pick for Butler and Stevens works his magic, convincing Hayward to leave significant cash on the table to come to Boston. The 76ers win the No. 1 pick, the Lakers wind up with No. 4 and Philadelphia adds Fultz and another top prospect to a team of top prospects.

Don’t give me a heart attack!

Regardless of how exactly the NBA Draft shakes out, two Eastern Conference teams with strong young cores have a chance to get better. How much better remains to be seen, but Cavs fans should be rooting for the Celtics and 76ers to miss out on a top three pick and the Lakers to snag one. That would at least mitigate the damage.