Some Thoughts on NBA Free Agency
/Is it just me, or is this year's NBA Free Agency Nicolas Cage-insane? I can't think of another year or league that had just about every team going absolutely bananas in terms of spending. There have been storylines, misreports, well publicized trade negotiations that fell through (always awkward, just ask Lamar), and storylines within storylines (Inception). Here are a few of my impressions so far:
So Much For 2016
It's been well documented that the salary cap is going to boom in 2016 when the new NBA TV deal kick in. Keeping this in mind, certain teams have been angling for as much financial flexibility come 2016 and 2017. Storied franchises like the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks and Heat, all have a plan to throw boat loads of cash and "big-market appeal" to the stars hitting the market.
The Lakers and Knicks swung and missed on a lot of big deals in 2015, and will swing for the fences again next year. The Celtics whiffed on Kevin Love when they ripped his arm off in May, and since then, cleared even more cap space for 2016 with the David Lee trade. And the Heat renegotiated with Dwayne Wade, to have more flexibility next year. All in all, these four teams could probably dish out six max contracts in 2016. And there will be other teams in the field as well. Philadelphia has tons of space, and two aggressors in 2015, Phoenix and Dallas, will have even more cash come next year.
My question is, who's getting all these max deals? The free agent class of 2015 did not do what was expected. Most, save LeBron and Wade, took long-term deals with player options in the fourth or fifth year (Paul Milsap has a three year deal with an option in the third year, he's getting old, the chances of him opting out to cash in are low). Assuming some of these guys opt out and excluding restricted free agents and James and Wade (James is not moving teams in 2016, and Wade will either get a max in Miami or a lesser deal elsewhere), here's my quick list of top five free agents for 2016:
- Kevin Durant
- Al Horford
- Dwight Howard
- Mike Conley Jr.
- Al Jefferson/Eric Gordon/Nicolas Batum
Durant is an obvious max player. Howard is the first champion to never win a title, but still deserving of a max deal. Are the other five guys listed above really deserving of $30 million a year? Because they all are going to get it come 2016.
Not Everyone Is A Max Player And That's OK
This is an ode to the teams that were actually able to sign players to smart, sensible deals. Here are some that I like:
David West is the first that comes to mind. He turned down an $11 million player-option with the Pacers to play for the Spurs on a veteran's minimum. He's smart, gritty, and team-oriented. In other words, he plays like a Spur. And he is perfect insurance for San Antonio's shiny new toy in LaMarcus Aldridge.
Cory Joseph was a restricted free agent that San Antonio had to let go in order to land Aldridge. He quickly inked a deal with Toronto for four years and $30 million. He never saw decent playing time with the Spurs, as point guards Tony Parker and Patty Mills commanded the minutes. But his per-36 numbers are great at 13.3 PPG, 4.7 APG, and 4.8 RPG. He should serve as a decent fill-in for Louis Williams and provide a solid back up to both Kyle Lowrey and DeMar DeRozan.
Mo Williams is coming back to Cleveland and that is a perfect move. Kyrie Irving will never stay completely healthy, meaning its smart to have two backup point guards. Williams' offensive game is a perfect compliment to Matthew Dellavedova's defensive energy. He's a great spot-starter with a good shooting stroke and a career average of five assists per game. At two years and $4 million all together, it's a great, cheap move for a team heading towards a historic payroll.
Khris MIddleton's 4-year, $70 million deal looks gargantuan at first sight, but will look great in two years when players of his very capable 3-and-D caliber are pulling in closer to $20 million a year. For Milwaukee, it's all about ensuring their young core doesn't get sniff of the open market in the coming years.
And while the San Antonio Spurs drank the free agency Kool-Aid and signed Aldridge to a max-offer sheet, they very quietly brought back Danny Green for 4-years and $45 million. Considering I just praised the Bucks for giving MIddleton $70 million, Green's deal looks like bargain. He continues to be one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and is vital to San Antonio's success in recent years. The Spurs are lucky to have him back.
One Night In Houston
The DeAndre Jordan soap opera is, at first glance, hilarious. The Clippers got burned. Love it. Mark Cuban got burned by the Clippers. Love it. The Cubes burned Chris Broussard. The best. The emoji war was legit. Doc Rivers and crew acted like they were Bruce Willis and Billy Bob Thornton in Bandits and Jordan was the banker. And all of this over a guy who can't shoot free-throws to save his life, and isn't mature enough to:
A) Make up his mind about who he wants to play with,
B) Hash out his feelings with Chirs Paul over a lack of high-fives, and
C) Talk to the owner that convinced him to verbally commit to a contract that started this in the first place.
But let's consider the big picture. On July 1st, NBA teams pledged a ridiculous $1.4 billion in guaranteed contracts. But none of those were official, legal commitments. Players and teams had to wait another week to sign deals so that the NBA can officially set the salary cap.
Consider that as well: the Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs gutted their benches to clear room for a max-deal, assuming the cap would sit at $66.5 million when the cap is actually $70 million, as announced on July 8. They might have been able to keep an extra player.
It's amazing that, in 2015, I can only think of a few instances where a player verbally committed to a deal only to sign with a different team later: Carlos Boozer in 2004, Hedo Turkoglu in 2009, and now Jordan. My history is fuzzy on the other two, but the Clippers might have set an ugly precedent with this Jordan fiasco. They unabashedly sent their owner, coach, and star players to place Jordan under house arrest until he could legally sign their contract.
The league needs to fix this awkward moratorium on signing contracts fast. While the Clippers didn't break any rules, they certainly didn't play fair. They blindsided the Mavericks and then forced Jordan to terminate all communication with Dallas. The NBA can't allow for teams to disregard commitments and still recruit players. It will turn into a bloodbath.
Love Wins
As a Cleveland fan, I can breathe a huge sigh of relief. Kevin Love announced on day one of free agency that he would sign a five-year deal to stay in Cleveland.
I can finally sit back, drink a nice glass of sweet tea, and watch my team dominate for the next five years. And I don't have to read any more asinine reports of Love leaving even after he went on Cleveland radio saying he was staying, of Love being upset about his minutes, of LeBron not recruiting Love when he actually did just that, of the Lakers definitely getting a meeting with him the morning he announces his new deal with Cleveland, or of Love being left out of an Instagram post. And then I saw this the next day...
Never once did Love waver in his commitments to Cleveland. From October to July, he repeated time and again that we wanted to come back to Cleveland. As free agency got closer, his statements got even stronger. Why the obsession with him and his decision, I don't know. I'm sure LeBron-mania had something to do with it (maybe it's his body). Whatever the obsession, its over for now. Just remember that in 2015, it was DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul, and Mark Cuban causing all the drama and indecision, while Love, as always, quietly kept to his word.