2015 MLB Predictions
/Hey all, Chris and I previewed the MLB in our last two podcasts. But just to recap and get some of the things we talked about on paper so we can look especially clueless come playoff season, here are some of the things we talked about and predicted. Feel free to comment below, and check out my brother's predictions as well.
National League
NL East- Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals sit atop this division quite comfortably. Always present Atlanta traded away their core offense and All-Star closer in the offense, looking for a quick rebuild to be ready for the opening of their new stadium in 2017. Philadelphia is paying for the sins of a decade of over spending, some of these contracts are so gaudy they can't even trade away the players (Ryan Howard). The New York Tommy Johns, I mean, Mets lack rotation depth behind ace Matt Harvey, and the lineup is still built around David Wright, dooming it to an inevitable collapse.
That is not to say the Nationals themselves aren't talented. They return much of the same roster from last year, a club that won the East by 17 games in 2014. All five members of their talented starting rotation are back, and they still went out and signed former Cy Young winner Max Scherzer to a historic mega deal. So they have depth at the most coveted and needed position. They can stand pat and use talented youngster Tanner Roark as insurance or they can move Jordan Zimmermann or Stephen Strasburg (he's already expendable?) for extra offense or future prospects. Nobody is catching up to the Nationals in 2015.
What about the Miami Marlins? While not as embarrassing as the rest of the NL East basement crew, they still lack the depth, pitching, and experience to challenge the Nationals. Look for the 300 Million Dollar Man, Giancarlo Stanton, and that talented outfield to push for a wildcard spot, but they are still a couple years and key players away from taking over this division.
NL Central- St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals find a way to win. No matter how quiet their offseason may seem, they will be in contention for the division come September. And the trade for Jason Heyward will soon look like one of the best moves of the offseason. Why? Because St. Louis develops winners better than anyone else. I am as confident in the Cardinals as I am in any other team in the MLB, but the division that they play in breeds some serious competition.
Though they probably lost more than they gained in the offseason, the Pittsburgh Pirates will definitely be in the mix for the division. Andrew McCutchen won his MVP in 2013 and sandwiched that season with two 3rd place finishes in 2012 and 2014. He's consistently amazing and look for him to continue leading this team to success. If they had any semblance of a top of the rotation ace, I would be tempted to pick them to win the Central.
The Chicago Cubs are the sexy pick of this offseason. There's a lot of positivity and good vibes coming from Theo-World these days. So I naturally hate everything they do. This team only won 73 games in 2014. Jon Lester looks good leading any team's rotation, but he-alone won't be able to drag this team out of the gutter. I know the hyped prospects are coming at some point in 2014, Kris Bryant will be called up sooner than later. That's the key reason I'm not buying the Cubs right now. Even at the start of 2015, the Cubs are still banking on the potential future, and I won't believe it 'til I see it.
NL West- Los Angeles Dodgers
If the Washington Nationals are Barad-Dur in the East, then the LA Dodgers are Isengard in the West. These two teams have simply outspent their competition to the top of their respective divisions. Banking on Yasiel Puig to replace the offense of Hanley Ramirez is risky, as is replacing Ramirez with 36-year old Jimmy Rollins at shortstop. The rotation will always be fine with Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke. There's too much talent and money for the Dodgers to not win this division.
The San Diego Padres finally opened the Black Gate to their prosperous farm system and bought what seems like an entirely new team. Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Will Meyers, and Craig Kimbrel were all acquired through trade and they added a workhorse to the top of the rotation in James Shields through free agency. All of a sudden, the Padres have an exciting product. I like what they've done and expect them to clinch a wildcard spot. If Kemp played like he did in the second half of last year, this team could be very dangerous.
NL Wild Card Game- San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
American League
AL East- Baltimore Orioles
Parity and the fact that the Red Sox and Yankees play in it will trick fans into thinking this division is talented. And that is not to say the winner of the division won't stand a chance at winning the World Series once playoffs begin, I'm just saying this division is bad.
So I am going with the sure thing. The Baltimore Orioles won the division pretty easily in 2014 and the lack of moves and growth of their competition lead me to believe they will win it 2015. They were succesfull last year without significant contributions from Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Matt Wieters. Look for those three to have a more consistent year and provide added punch to a lineup that lost 2014 home-run king, Nelson Cruz.
Toronto is returning much of that dangerous lineup and added swapped Brett Lawrie for Josh Donaldson, which seems like an upgrade if just for the consistency Donaldson can provide at third. It's going to come down to the Orioles and Blue Jays for the division, it should be a good race.
The Boston Red Sox made the most noise by signing Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez to large contracts, and then spending over $100 million on two Cuban prospects that won't even make the club in 2015. It's as if the cloud of cash they threw in the air would obscure our view of their starting rotation: Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson, Joe Kelly, and Wade Miley. There is no doubt this offense will score lots of runs, but the rotation will give up just as many. Cole Hamels should look at real estate in Boston as soon as possible.
Dream scenario: Alex Rodriguez playing playoff baseball in 2015.
AL Central- Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers have the best lineup in baseball. The middle of the lineup will look something like: Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, and Yoenis Cespedes. They also boast a legitimate ace in David Price. The rotation drops off significantly after Price; they don't have the usual rotational firepower that we are accustomed to seeing, but there's enough there to ride the offense to a fifth-straight Al Central crown. The end is coming for the Detroit's reign atop the division, but I fully expect them to pull out all stops to adding more pieces come trade-deadline and trying yet again for an American League pennant.
The Cleveland Indians are the late-blooming version of the Chicago Cubs without the huge payroll. Corey Kluber took a huge step out of nowhere to win the AL Cy Young last year, almost covering up the additional second-half emergences of Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. Combine that with Michael Brantley finishing third in MVP voting, and all of a sudden you have a dark horse for the AL Central. I am picking against Cleveland for two reasons:
1) I firmly believe any prediction of success for my hometown will doom them to laughable failure.
2) There are way too many questions about whether players took steps forward last year, or had career years. For example: in 2015 and at age 27, Brantley doubled his home run total, added 40 points to his batting average, and slugged around 200 points higher than in 2014. Is Brantley now a middle of the order slugger, or will he regress to being a steady bat with very little power? Questions like this exist up and down the rotation and lineup. To varying degrees we still don't know what to expect from Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes, Lonnie Chisenhall, Carrasco, and Bauer in the future. I definitely believe some of these players did indeed make steps forward, but just as many of these players will fall backwards in 2015.
I'll take this break to say the AL Central is the most interesting and talented division in all of baseball. There are four teams that deserve equal amounts of attention and have the ability to win this division and win the World Series. Oddly enough, the defending American League Campions, the Kansas City Royals are widely regarded as the fourth best team. Their postseason run was surprising for how deep they went and their lack of real consistency in the 2014 regular season. In the offseason they lost James Shields and Billy Butler, and replaced them with Edinson Volquez and Kendrys Morales. The moves aren't exactly inspiring, and they barely had the tools to make the postseason last year.
The Chicago WhiteSox are back, emerging from what I think is one of the quickest rebuilds in recent MLB history. They added rotational depth with Jeff "The Shark" Samardzija, added a legitimate closer in David Robertson, and replaced Alejandro De Aza with Melky Cabrera, all moves that replaced and upgraded. With Chris Sale throwing, and Jose Abreu mashing, all things are possible for the WhiteSox.
Screw it, I'm picking Cleveland for the wildcard.
AL West- Seattle Mariners
Robinson Cano got that extra bat he asked for a year later in Nelson Cruz. Cano and Cruz should make a great lefty-righty combination in the middle of that Mariners lineup. Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker are great supplemental guys behind the ace in Seattle. And most importantly, Felix Hernandez finally has a legitimate team around him, and it's time to see King Felix pitch meaningful games in October.
I mentioned on the podcast that the Los Angeles Angels are more dependent on one player than any other team. Obviously Mike Trout can be that kind of player you lean on, but any kind of injury, slump, or regression from Trout will spell disaster for the Angels. Jared Weaver and CJ Wilson have been hurt and inconsistent in the past years. Instead, the Angels will have to rely on younger talent and Garret Richards for pitching. The middle of the lineup around Trout isn't terrible, it's just a sad reminder of two players that were once great. Josh Hamilton is battling personal issues and Albert Pujols is quickly losing all the tools that once made him the best player in baseball. Look for this team to make the wildcard just because of Trout's greatness and his supporting cast has enough left in the tank for one more year.
AL Wild Card Game- Cleveland Indians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Awards
NL Cy Young- Matt Harvey (NYM)
AL Cy Young- Chris Sale (CWS)
NL MVP- Andrew McCutchen (PIT)
AL MVP- Mike Trout (LAA)