How to Fix the AFC South: Part One
/For whatever reason I'm fascinated by the AFC South. I live in Nashville. I am forced to watch the Titans play every week. I hear people talk about them and this division. This division is bad. It has been for a while. I just wrote a blog that said the gateway to the playoffs in the AFC lies through the AFC South. We are entering Week 8 of the NFL season and these four teams are a combined 8-29. The Indianapolis Colts lead the division at 3-4.
I don't like giving the division such hate, without offering some constructive criticism. So I'm embarking on a four part series on how to fix the teams of the AFC South, starting with the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts have a problem that plagues many NBA teams, not often do you see it in the NFL. They drafted a star early in the rebuilding process and are now stuck in a purgatory of mediocrity: finishing too high in draft position to find sure-fire star and too successful to justify gutting the roster. The Colts are a good team in terms of success. They have reached the playoffs three years in a row and Andrew Luck is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL. He also makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Luck is only going to get better and cover even more holes, perpetuating this cycle. Yes, they are 3-4 right now, and Luck hasn't looked all inspiring this year. But that record is still good enough to win the division (all three wins are against the division). That should be the next banner they hang, "Good Enough to Win the AFC South." Because at this rate, that's all they will ever be.
Draft better
General manager Ryan Grigson nailed the first step of franchise-building in his rookie year: Find the star quarterback. They took Luck with the very first pick in the 2012 draft. The next step would be to smartly draft the next couple of years to supplement your young star with equally young and ascending talent. But they have drafted disastrously ever since. The Colts followed the Luck selection with two straight rounds of tight ends in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. Right there is a red flag. Why did Luck need two tight ends more than anything else? Yes, T.Y. Hilton was also added in that third round (one of the few good selections), but tight ends are usually not franchise cornerstones. Nor will two of them see the field often when you have the next generational quarterback throwing out of shot-gun and spread formations. This should have been warning sign number one.
The next draft was more of the same. First round selection Bjorn Werner isn't starting on the defensive line in 2015. He has been fairly disappointing, with just 6.5 sacks in two and half seasons. On their two-deep roster, the Colts defense only features six players who were drafted or signed as undrafted rookies by the organization. This is a unit that has been manhandled two years in a row by the New England Patriots offense in the postseason, particularly through the run game. Yet the Colts did not draft a defensive player in the first two rounds of 2014 or 2015.
It's only fitting that wide receiver Phillip Dorsett, Grigson's first round selection in 2015, injured his fibula the same day rookie defensive tackle Malcom Brown played the majority of the snaps for the Patriots against the Jets. Running back Chris Ivory had trouble finding space all day. Many (myself included) could not believe the Colts took a wide receiver over the run-stuffer Brown.
The Colts do feature an offensive line that was built through the draft (save for their right tackle). But this a unit that finished 2014 ranked as the 17th best offensive line by Pro Football Focus. Football Outsiders has them currently ranked in the middle of the pack in both run and pass blocking. They just aren't that good. With the addition of running back Frank Gore, the Colts still only average 93.6 yards per game, good for 26th in the league.
How do you fix a team like this? If they had just drafted right, the Colts would probably be the best team in the AFC by now. So short of building a time machine or tanking like an NBA team (something that would never happen, but I would consider it), they should start by getting rid of Grigson immediately and bring in somebody that can evaluate talent late in the draft. The Seahawks have built a dominant franchise through undrafted free agents. The Ravens notoriously let their veterans walk every year so they can recoup compensatory draft picks in those later rounds. The Colts need a sound mind that can improve the team even while their quarterback and offense wins lots of games. Grigson's moves have been a downward spiral of desperate home run swings that never connect. It's time to cover losses and move on.
Wiser acquisitions
And I haven't even talked about the Trent Richardson trade. A first round draft pick outright for Trent Richardson. How Grigson has survived this long post-T-Rich trade is baffling (note: the initial reaction to that trade was mixed, but it became apparent very quickly that the Colts got hosed by the Browns). It goes to show you just how many sore spots Luck's abilities cover up. How can you justify changing management when the franchise is winning?
And now the Colts have gotten desperate and turned to signing Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, and Trent Cole this offseason. All guys over 30, looking back at better days. The Colts enter this year as the oldest team in the NFL, with their franchise quarterback at only age 26.
The Colts currently have about $10 million in cap space, and should have about $25 million heading into the 2016 offseason. That's a great number for a playoff team to have. The only problem being Luck is nearing the end of his rookie deal. Over the summer, Luck and the Colts were talking about an extension with a $25 million base salary (that would be highest in the league). The Colts might be able to get that number down a little bit due to Luck's shoulder injury and if the season continues its overall disappointing trend. But he's not going to get anything less than the estimated $20 million annual deals Cam Newton and Russell Wilson signed over the summer. That's going to seriously limit what else you can do in the free agent market. Which makes the need for a smart, tempered GM all the more important.
Cut the fat
Fleener and Allen are also seeking extensions. I would be tempted to let both walk, but would understand retaining one of them for a reasonable price. With Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Dorsett, Luck has enough talented pass catchers around him.
(Side note: Grigson drafted all five of those pass-catchers in the first three rounds of the last four drafts. For reference, Bill Polian, the Colts GM for all 13 years of the Peyton Manning-era, drafted 10 wide receivers and tight ends total in his entire run with the Colts. And only 6 of those players were selected in the first three rounds.)
And they should probably let cornerback Greg Toler (he'll be 31 next year) walk while cutting veterans Gore, Johnson, and Robert Mathis. They need to get younger and stop committing money to the offense.
A new direction
Chuck Pagano should go too, and not just because of that stupid play he ran two weeks ago. His staff hasn't developed the young guys around Luck. And Pagano relies way too much on his quarterback to bail out poor play on defense and a non-existent run game. Establishing the run takes as much patience and commitment as it does talent. Pagano has exhibited neither of those. A change of leadership would naturally boost the output of this team.
All in all, it's a little strange writing a piece on how to fix a team that has won two straight AFC South titles and been to the playoffs three-straight seasons. But given the mediocre start to 2015, there are serious flaws in this team. And as seen by their playoff exits, the Colts are in desperate need of an overhaul. At this rate, it's only a matter of time until one of their division rivals develops enough talent to overtake them. And there's one in particular that I really like.
Part 2 of this series covers the Jaguars, come back next week for Parts 3 and 4 of this series.