How to Fix the AFC South: Part Three

If the Jacksonville Jaguars win against the Geno Smith-led New York Jets in Week 9 and the Indianapolis Colts lose to the undefeated Denver Broncos, the Houston Texans (on a bye this week) will enter Week 10 tied with the Jaguars as the top two teams in the AFC South. They'll both be 3-5. There are tons of problems with this division right now. I'm devoting a blog post to each of the four teams that make up this division and trying to find a way to make these teams competitive again. You can find my posts on the Jaguars and Colts here. But today is all about the Houston Texans, a classic example of an age old tale in the NFL: having talent at every position except for the only one that matters.

Find a Quarterback

Halfway through the season, one of the sadder quarterback controversies was finally resolved with Ryan Mallet crumbling under the immense pressure that stud-QB Brian Hoyer put upon him. Seriously, Mallet could not perform well enough to keep Hoyer on the bench and then lost all semblance of character when he was benched a couple weeks ago (was it the second, third, or fourth time these two have switched places this year?). 

Hoyer is performing pretty well this year. In six games he's put up over 1,500 yards, 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Bill O'Brien looks foolish for naming him the starter in preseason and then yanking him from that role after just three quarters of play in week one. Mallet then laid a huge egg for two and half weeks, and Hoyer has taken the role back for good.

Hoyer has shown that he's capable of starting and leading a team in short bursts. His three starts in 2013 with the Browns were good enough to secure his role as the assumed starter for 2014 despite a torn ACL. And his first half of 2014 in Cleveland was a revelation for the city. But the second half was a nightmare. At age 30, Hoyer looks like a great backup quarterback to have at the ready. And while his numbers this year are even better than that first-half of 2014, the Texans are 3-5 and always playing from behind. Hoyer ranks 20th in the league in passing attempts despite starting only four games this year (and playing in two more). And about a third of those throws consist of tossing it up to DeAndre Hopkins and praying that he catches it. Thankfully for Hoyer, Hopkins comes down with it more often than not. 

Unlike the Colts and Jaguars, the quarterback situation remains a huge question mark for the Texans. They witnessed Matt Schaub evaporate before their own eyes in 2013, and have since refused to address the position. Ryan Fitzpatrick (the ultimate journeyman) started for them in 2014, and now they tried to cut corners with the hope of Mallet or Hoyer catching fire. Since taking David Carr with their first pick as a franchise in 2002, the Texans haven't selected a quarterback higher than the fourth round. They need to invest in a young arm and make that a priority heading into the 2016 Draft.

Pray that Jadeveon Clowney Gets Healthy

How could the Texans not take this guy with the first pick in the 2014 Draft:

And how could it get any worse for Jadeveon Clowney after a season and a half? In 11 games played, he's totaled 21 tackles and just one sack. It took him ten games to get his first NFL sack. By this point, Clowney should have developed to the point where he and J.J. Watt took turns pulverizing quarterbacks. A pre-microfracture surgery Clowney with Justin James Watt could have been the best duo in all of football, regardless of position. 

Unfortunately, for every Watt there are 20 Clowneys. In his first year and half, Clowney can't stay on the field. He might have lost half a step due to his torn meniscus, and he's already battled head, shoulder, and back injuries. Pass rushers are given a three year window to develop in the NFL. If he finally emerges in 2016 as anything close to the player he was at South Carolina, the Texans defense will get an immeasurable boost. That can help to quick-fix this team. We can only hope, because regardless of who you cheer for, football deserves to have its greatest players on the field.

Fix the Running Game

Arian Foster has been a staple for the Houston Texans since his breakout year in 2010. From 2010-12 he ran for over 4,200 yards and 41 touchdowns (plus 1,600 yards receiving and 6 touchdown catches). He's battled injuries his whole career (as all running backs do), but with a nagging groin injury and then a season-ending achilles tear in 2015, he might be facing the end of the line with the Texans. I don't think he should be cut, as he's only under contract for one more year. But it's hard to expect anything out of the soon-to-be 30 year old Foster, especially considering the long recovery period of an Achilles tear.

(Side note: As a disgruntled fantasy football owner of Foster — why would you keep your best and injury-prone player on the field in the fourth quarter of a game you were losing 41-0 at halftime?)

So it's time to look forward. Chris Polk and Alfred Blue seem like fine backup running backs, but don't look like game-changers. I think that's fine for an NFL team as long as you keep investing in your offensive line (and if you have a respectable passing game). The Texans have historically had a great line while blocking for Foster. Brandon Brooks is one of the best guards in the game due in part to to former head coach Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking schemes. They could stand to upgrade at right tackle as Derek Newton has disappointed. They also have highly drafted second year guard Xavier Su'a-Filo waiting in the wings. 

And Fix the Other Run Game

On the other side of the ball, the Texans are having trouble stopping the run. Watt is a quarterback-killer, but he's not much of a run-stopper. That issue was thought to be fixed with the signing of Vince Wilfork, but it hasn't really worked out. The Texans rank tenth worst in yards per attempt at 4.4. Middle linebacker Brian Cushing was once one of the best inside linebackers in the league. He's still very reliable in the middle, but his playmaking abilities might be behind him following bad injuries to his ACL and fibula. While he's not a liability in the run game, he's certainly no longer a difference maker.

The good news for the Texans defense is their secondary remains strong. Despite the losses, teams are still not passing on them. It always helps when you have a dominant rusher like Watt, and Jonathan Joseph is a very good cornerback that doesn't get lots of mention. He's never in that barbershop conversation of "Who's the league's elite corner?" and I don't think he should be. He's probably the tier below that top rank, which is still very good. The secondary as a whole makes a great unit, with him and Kareem Jackson forming a great pair on the outside (Jackson plays on the inside and at safety at certain points). They also doubled down at the position, using a first round selection on Kevin Johnson from Wake Forest. Rahim Moore has struggled at safety, but he's more talented than anyone else on the depth chart. He should right a couple things and get back to the player we saw in Denver. He's on a very affordable contract and is only 26. 

Going Forward

The Texans are projected to have an average amount of cap space heading into 2016. Their big offseason issues will be resigning Brooks and deciding whether to re-sign starting center, Ben Jones. Otherwise, this group will remain intact. I think they should continue to invest in the defense through free agency to fix the run defense while focusing the upcoming draft on the offense. 

The Texans have always drafted well and developed their young talent. This is a unit that, if they had the right quarterback, could easily win the AFC South. And they still might, if Hoyer proves he can perform for a full season and if the Colts fail to right the ship. Whoever comes out on top in the South this year has to be considered the weakest team in the playoffs. For the future, the Texans need a long-term answer at quarterback. It's a story that plagues half of the teams in the league, but it really is that simple.  

Come back later this week for the fourth and final part of this AFC South blog series.