Some Thoughts on the NFL Draft
/I love the NFL Draft, it's the Hall Pass of sports talk. No one holds you accountable for your predictions and thoughts because everyone is wrong about something during the draft. You can hit on your mock draft, but totally miss on first round talents actually becoming star players. Head over to our NFL Draft Preview to hear Chris and I get a lot of things wrong, and to our new CLETalk podcast to hear what we predicted for our hometown team. Anyway, it's an exciting time for a football fan, and there are always interesting story lines to talk about. Here are a few of my favorites:
Bringing Un-Sexy Back
The Cleveland Browns had two first round picks — No. 12 and No. 19. With a team this historically and fundamentally bad, the possibilities of choice were endless. Would they trade for a quarterback like Marcus Mariota or Sam Bradford? Would they draft a replacement for Josh Gordon? At No. 19, they even had a choice of three elite pass-rushers in Bud Dupree, Shane Ray and Randy Gregory. Instead they took the most boring outcome possible: NT Danny Shelton at 12, and C/LT Cameron Erving at 19. Meat and Potatoes.
No one can ever fault a team for starting the (perpetual) rebuild in the trenches. The Browns were 32nd in run defense last year, Danny Shelton fixes an obvious need. He also wore this to the draft. And did this:
Erving, on the other hand, seems to have puzzled many sports-thinkers across the country. Don't they have a Pro Bowl center signed to an over-priced contract? Yes they do, and when Alex Mack shattered his leg in Week 6, the Browns run-game was doomed to failure, dragging the passing attack with it, and ruined the wonderful feel-good story that was Brian Hoyer. After starting Mack at center for every snap since 2009, the Browns used three replacements in the final 11 weeks of the season. And they all performed terribly.
So Erving might seem like a reactionary pick to one nightmare season, but he fortunately has the flexibility to play every position on the offensive line. While the theme of this year's first round O-Line crop was positional flexibility, only Erving is proven capable of playing tackle, guard, and center. He started more games at left tackle than he did at center for FSU. He can replace John Greco or Mitchell Schwartz on the right side and wait until Mack uses his out-clause after 2015. Both picks aren't sexy and aren't truly game-changing, but for the first time since Joe Haden, the Browns didn't screw up the first round.
And we didn't want you either, DeVante Parker's mom.
I'm A Gurley Man
I love Todd Gurley. His running game the last three years has been amazing to watch. No disrespect to fellow first round-stud Melvin Gordon, but there's something more impressive about Gurley than any other back. He really does have the rare combination of vision, burst, and power. SEC defenders looked like bowling pins when trying to tackle him.
But I do not love Gurley to St. Louis. Of all the possible landing spots in the Top 15, St. Louis has the most question marks on the offensive line. I still think Gurley will make enough highlight-reel broken tackles and cuts to look good, but it's going to destroy his body in the process. Jeff Fisher is a guy who leans on his running backs until they turn to dust.
Indianapolis Nailed Two First Round Selections Since 1998
Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.
Ok this isn't true at all. Between those two QBs they've drafted the likes of Dwight Freeney, Reggie Wayne, and Edegerrin James. All great selections. Hyperbole aside, the Colts do like to screw things up in the first round, unless the best QB in a generation is on the board.
The Colts offense as led by Luck is pass-giddy. He has no problem launching the ball forty times a game, and he's so smart, accurate, and mobile that it works. They did not need to draft a wide receiver in the first round, yet they did just that. Phillip Dorsett from Miami is small at 5'10" compared to the rest of the first round WRs, and two great run-stuffers in Landon Collins and Malcom Brown were still on the board. It's not good when teammates are outwardly critical of you decision just days after the draft. Dorsett is not going to stop the run on defense nor is he going to enable it on offense.
LeGarrette Blount Day is a national holiday held in January as part of the agreement between Colts owner Jim Irsay and the Devil. Irsay was promised the number one pick in 2012 to select Andrew Luck. In exchange, Satan, an Oregon Ducks fan and Boise State Bronco hater, empowers Blount once a year to channel a combination of Jamal Lewis and the Incredible Hulk. With this context I now understand Indianapolis Colts draft theory.
Bad 'Boys
Some nasty things were said of Randy Gregory in the weeks leading up to the draft. In actuality the only known red flag against the talented pass rusher was a positive marijuana test. But rumors of immaturity and lack of mental toughness are certainly concerning. So I suppose yes, he is a perfect replacement for Greg Hardy.
It's unfair to link the two together, Hardy has clear, violent off-field issues, and Gregory is a guy that seems to just rub NFL scouts the wrong way. But the Cowboys have forced the comparison. In an offseason and draft where character and clean-sheets are valued so as to avoid the next media storm, Jerry Jones and Co. seem unable to resist the value offered by great talents with questionable character.
You Have to Be Kidding Me
The New York Jets looked at their big board when picking at No. 6 overall and had to just laugh and shake their heads. If anyone did not need Leonard Williams on their defensive line, it was the Jets. But how do you pass up the best player in the draft when he falls right into your lap? Don't blame the Jets for teams taking Mariota, Dante Fowler Jr., Amari Cooper, and Brandon Scherff ahead of Williams.
The Jets have made six first round selections in the last five years. All six on defensive players. Four of those picks have been defensive lineman. They haven't drafted an offensive player since the Sanchize in 2009. The Jets added the best defensive player in the draft and signed the best defensive player in free agency (sorry Ndamukong Suh). This defense will be good.
But they aren't going anywhere with Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the way. Neither can maximize the talents of big receiving targets Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, nor can they get the ball down field to maximize rookie bomber, Devin Smith. Bryce Petty will start by the end of the year.
On Giving Out Draft Grades
Grading drafts is as common as posting mock drafts beforehand. Yet they are even more stupid than trying to predict all the picks of the draft. I cannot find a team that has a consensus grade by various talking heads. At the end of the day, it all comes down to development. Every kid taken in the draft this year can be successful, it just comes down to some combination of effort, coaching, commitment from management, and plain dumb luck.
The best teams don't fall in love with jaw-dropping talent and sacrifice a roster to get it. Instead, they look for talent that is coachable and players that are good fits in the locker room. The Seattle Seahawks won the 2014 Super Bowl with 21 undrafted free agents on their 53-man roster.
Browns get an A though.