What If: Manning vs. Brady was a Division Rivalry?

The 17th edition of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning was probably the last. While Manning hasn’t made it official, it’s pretty clear that at his age the wear and tear of a 16-game football season is too much for him (not to mention a playoff run).

More importantly, the Broncos have Brock Osweiler and he’s no longer going to be cheap after showing promise in Manning’s absence. Denver has had the luxury of the rookie salary cap to stash him as Manning’s protegee for four seasons, now he will hit the open market and Denver would be foolish to let him go for one last ride on the Manning train.

I’m confident that, even if Manning returns, it won’t be with Denver. And I think he retires once this season ends. But that’s purely my speculation, I honestly have no clue.

The point is last weekend’s AFC Championship likely marks the end of an era, a rivalry that has defined the better part of two decades. Despite the narrow loss, Brady won the overall series 11-6, but Manning clinched the playoff head-to-head at 3-2, though neither quarterback won on the road in the postseason.

For the two to have met 17 times despite never playing in the same division is a testament to how dominant they’ve been. The reason they always met in the regular season — teams with Brady or Manning on the roster have played one another in the regular season every year since 2003 — is because both always seem to win their divisions. And the odd years they didn’t (2008) they both somehow manage to finish in second, lining them up for another showdown.

But what if these two all-time legendary quarterbacks played in the same division? At least for most of their careers. It’s actually not as crazy as you’d think, because it happened for one brief year.

In 2002 the NFL realigned its divisions to four from three when it added a 32nd team (the Houston Texans). Prior to that, the AFC East consisted of its current four teams — Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, Jets — and the Colts. Brady and Manning met in a home-and-home series that year, with the Patriots winning twice.

Just imagine if NFL hadn't expanded and the Patriots and Colts remained AFC East rivals. Not only would fans have been treated to 16 more Brady/Manning duels —but the fact that both teams would be fighting for the division would have sent shockwaves through the AFC playoff bracket.

One big note here — these are all projections based on records that happened in this reality. Obviously a change this big wipes the slate clean and everything we’ve remembered wouldn’t have come to pass. We’re talking about a whole alternate reality here, like the TV show Fringe. But an example is the 2008 season, Brady may not have even been injured because the Patriots probably don’t open with the Chiefs that year, and who knows what happens. Not to mention that these teams clash twice per year, not just once, and the ramifications of the extra loss could also be far reaching.

But let’s not let that get in the way of having some fun!

From 2003-10, the prime of the Manning/Brady rivalry, each team qualified for the playoffs in all but one season and that was the Patriots missing in 2008 the year Brady wasn’t at the helm. The Patriots and Colts qualified all 15 times Manning and Brady were healthy.

Of those 15 playoff appearances, only once did either team open the tournament on the road. That was in 2008 when the Colts failed to win their division. In essence the two teams combined for 14 division championships.

Right there, the playoff structure would have been drastically realigned. The top three division winners were seeded one through three, meaning the highest the loser of their hypothetical division rivalry would have been seeded was fourth and in some cases lower.

Since the Colts were chasing the Patriots early in the rivalry, this change likely affects them more. The Patriots were dominant in 2003, 2004, 2007 and 2010 while the Colts produced elite 2005 and 2009 seasons. Each of those six teams won at least 14 games, highlighted by New England going undefeated in 2007.

The only year both teams played in the wild card round was 2006 — and they both met in the AFC Championship game. But both would have still hosted wild card games since the Patriots were the best wild card.

The Colts still would have still hosted playoff games in 2003 and 2004, but they would have had to play the Ravens in 2003 and the Jets in 2004. Probably not a major difference, the bigger difference would have been the 12-4 Titans getting the No. 3 seed in 2003 and the 12-4 Chargers earning the No. 3 seed in 2004.

The biggest change would have been 2005 — as the Colts and Broncos would still be No. 1 and No. 2, but Jacksonville still being in the Central and not in the South with Indianapolis would have bumped the Jags from a road-game against the 10-6 Patriots to the No. 3 seed. This would have bumped New England down to No. 6…and still facing off against the Jaguars because the Bengals and Steelers were both 11-5. But the game would have been played in Jacksonville, not Boston.

More importantly, the Patriots would have had to go to Indianapolis in the Divisional round (if they still beat Jacksonville) while Pittsburgh would have traveled to Denver. Thus depriving fans of an epic Steelers upset and rewarding them with an extra playoff version of Manning vs. Brady.

The 2006 bracket would not have been changed, but the 2007 one would have shifted drastically. Indianapolis — at 13-3 — would have been stuck in the Patriots’ division (though the teams would have met twice, New England did win in Indianapolis during its 16-0 run). This would have knocked the Colts from a first-round bye and the No. 2 seed to the No. 4 seed.

Jacksonville wins big again, vaulting all the way up to No. 2 as the Central Division champion and San Diego remains No. 3. This sets up a Colts/Steelers wild card matchup, with the winner going to New England. Assuming the Colts win, fans get yet another Manning vs. Brady playoff game with Manning trying to wreck Brady’s bid for a perfect season.

The 2008 season is the hardest to project, because the Patriots went 11-5 with Matt Cassel at quarterback. If Brady isn’t hurt, it’s safe to say New England wins one more game, maybe even two, and qualifies for the postseason.

The 2009 season would have seen the Patriots get bumped from the No. 3 seed to the No. 4 and face the Jets in the wild card round instead of the Ravens. Probably a good thing given how they got stomped by Baltimore, but probably wouldn’t have fared better against New York without Wes Welker.

The Chiefs win big in 2010, moving up from No. 4 to No. 3 while the Patriots and Steelers still snag the top two seeds. This bumps Indianapolis down to No. 6 — and still face the Chiefs, only on the road. But a big change would be the Jets having to travel to Baltimore. New York knocked off Indianapolis and New England that year.

If the Colts handle the Chiefs…you guessed it! Another Manning vs. Brady playoff duel.

The fun comes crashing down in 2011, Manning’s neck injury likely still happens and he misses the season. The Colts tank for Andrew Luck, coldly cut Manning and he latches on in Denver while the Indianapolis gets a double-dose of Legarrette Blount — who likely pulls a Jamal Lewis and piles up 500 yards in two games against a hapless rush defense.

But as fantastic as the Manning vs. Brady rivalry was, playing in the same division for eight seasons would have made it that much better. Who knows what would have really happened, I only know it would have been awesome.