All Aboard the NFL Coaching Carousel

The coaching carousel is something you either care way too much about, or you don't even realize it happens. If you don't realize it's going on, it's probably because football is still relevant to you and your team in late January. For the 20 teams that did not experience playoff football, January is a dark time. The NFL Draft is still far away and the only bits of news we can cling to are front office shakeups and coaching hires.

Six teams took the plunge and hired a new coach in January. Some are worth talking about in detail. Others, not so much. Here are my thoughts. 

Is This Cleveland We're Talking About?

It's hard to believe that Hue Jackson going to Cleveland is considered the best move of the coaching carousel. Cleveland is a graveyard for coaches. Yet the Browns hired a guy who seemed to be the hottest name available. And he even has coaching experience!

To top it all off, Marvin Lewis actually pleaded for Jackson to stay in Cincinnati with the promise of a succession plan (to Jackson's credit, Marvin Lewis seems to be the immortal NFL coach, so a succession plan seems kind of hollow). Now maybe that's just Lewis being a good friend and not wanting Jackson to commit career suicide by taking a job with Cleveland, but it could also mean that a really good coach on a really good team didn't want to lose a very valuable asset. 

What's even more baffling is that Cleveland didn't just fall into this decision. It was actually planned. The Browns cut ties with Mike Pettine and Ray Farmer on Jan. 4th and named Shashi Brown vice president of operations on the same day. Two days later, they hired Paul DePodesta as their chief strategy office (a move shocking in and of itself because it is considered around the league to be forward-thinking). And they tabbed Jackson as their coach just a week later.

Now all of this really means nothing because Cleveland is still a train wreck on the field and has no quarterback. But for once the Browns aren't in the news for poor play, illegal text messages, rehab stints, or drug suspensions. 

Goodbye Billy...

And It Just Keeps Spinning

Adam Gase has been a hot coaching name for three years now. He's built quite an impressive resume as a quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears. He finally took an offer to become the coach of the Miami Dolphins. New coaches on bad teams are always hit or miss, but Gase feels like fools gold to me. 

Now, I have zero NFL coaching experience, but I have to think the easiest assistant coaching job would be working with Peyton Manning. Because I would have to do close to nothing to look successful. Giving Gase praise for running a Manning-led Broncos unit from 2013-14 is like naming Ringo the most important Beatle.

Successfully coaching Jay Cutler is a little more impressive, but his 2015 stats don't exactly look like a renaissance. Cutler's QBR jumped from 52.77 in 2014 to 60.67 in 2015, but it was at a career best 67.07 in 2013 (admittedly, Cutler missed five games in 2013). 

Now Gase takes over a Miami squad that has Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and Jarvis Landry is the number one target. Landry is a very good young wide receiver that could better. But Gase has spent the last four years coaching offenses littered with playmakers like Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery. Now is the time for Gase to prove his offensive wizardry.       

Chip Kelly landing in San Francisco is significant in a number of ways. First off, its shocking that he's not in Tennessee coaching his former protege, Marcus Mariota. It's even more shocking that the Titans did not interview Kelly at all for the job. Maybe the disinterest was mutual, but the coach and team seemed destined to unite this offseason.

Instead, Kelly returns the West Coast and inherits a situation just as bad as the Titans. The 49ers defense is old and decimated and the offense continued to regress in 2015. Colin Kaepernick's career has gone full Benjamin Button. Losing your starting job is always embarrassing, losing that job to Blaine Gabbert and watching Gabbert outplay you is a whole lot worse.

The good news for Kaepernick is he seems to have everything Kelly wants in a quarterback. Kap has shown he can be coached into a great quarterback and he has the athleticism to do things for Kelly that Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez and Nick Foles could never do. Carlos Hyde should also be a big beneficiary of Kelly's offense, as Hyde excelled running the option with Braxton Miller at Ohio State.     

Speaking of Tennessee, I understand the want for stability, especially with a young rookie quarterback and the upcoming No. 1 overall selection in the NFL Draft. But Mike Mularkey isn't exactly the model of stability. He had a nine game audition as coach and went 2-7. 

System Guys

New coaches tend to bring some of their former players along with them to help install their new coaching schemes. Jackson, with just a short drive north on I-71, could make some interesting moves to help his new team and hurt their division rival. The Bengals have a proven starter at quarterback and a backup quarterback who showed promise. The Browns have Josh McCown. AJ McCarron might never hold more trade value than right now and Jackson is comfortable with him. Would the Bengals even consider making that move to help their in-state rival? Probably not, but other guys like Adam "Pacman" Jones, Vincent Rey, Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones are all set for free agency and might be up for the drive north. 

Matt Forte's time in Chicago might be done, which could spell a move down to South Beach to reunite with Gase. Gase is a quarterback specialist and Forte, with his pass-catching skills, is a quarterback's best friend. Zach Miller revived his career with Gase calling plays, the tight end is a free agent and might be smart to go to Miami. 

As for Kelly, no one will follow him to San Francisco because no one in Philadelphia (and maybe the world) likes Chip Kelly anymore. Though don't be surprised if Kelly finds a way to get Bradford on his team. Because he's the only person in the NFL who likes Sam Bradford. 

Offense, Offense, Offense

As if we didn't know this yet, the current NFL is a game of offense. All seven of the coaches hired made their mark on the offensive side. What I find most surprising about this group is how six of the best offensive minds in football can be so boring.

Kelly is old news and already on a redemption path. Gase was the wunderkind a year ago, but we all forgot about him while he was in Chicago. Jackson is a no-nonsense, balanced offense guru. Mularkey has been hired as an NFL coach three times and only has three and a half seasons of head coaching experience to show for it. All Philadelphia Eagles' coach Doug Pederson has done while coaching in the NFL is work under Andy Reid. Pederson and newly hired New York Giants coach, Ben McAdoo are so boring they weren't even worth talking about in this blog.

My point being NFL coaching hires work exactly like the NFL Draft, nobody knows. There are way too many factors to make a definitive statement about one person succeeding in the NFL. Most teams are taking accurate guesses on guys that look like they belong in the league and praying everything falls into place. The really good teams are able to identify talent and have the stability and support to make that talent as successful as possible. The same strategy is applied to 21 year-old and 50 year old-men alike.