Early Favorites for Super Bowl 51
/The confetti has been cleaned up from Super Bowl 50. The Broncos are champions, the Panthers are second-best. The NFL is now in full offseason mode, with the NFL Combine approaching and a variety of bad publicity stories involving various players.
The offseason brings change. Through the draft, roster cuts and free agency, 2016 rosters will look incredibly different from just a year ago. But that doesn't mean some teams have a clear foundation laid and already favorites to make it to Super Bowl 51. Here are my top choices, starting with some repeat trips.
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton and the Panthers have a lot of questions to answer in the offseason, fair or unfair. One question they don't have to answer is whether or not they have talent to make a repeat run to next year's Super Bowl. They absolutely do. Josh Norman is the only major contributor up for free agency. And with the franchise tag, Norman will definitely be playing in Charlotte next year.
The Panthers passing game was the weakest part of the team. Newton's play and ability to extend plays revitalized the careers of burners Philly Brown and Ted Ginn Jr. But they both dropped a lot of balls in the Super Bowl. Upgrading the passing attack would be a natural reaction in the offseason, but all Carolina should do is look within their current roster. Kelvin Benjamin missed the entire 2015 season because of an ACL tear suffered in training camp. Benjamin and Newton had great chemistry in 2014, leading to a 1,000 yard rookie season. He should be back and will instantly resume duties as the number one target.
Rookie Devin Funchess was taken in the second round and was viewed as a project. Some scouts thought Funchess would be better suited as a tight end heading into the NFL Draft. The Panthers used him exclusively as a wide receiver in 2015, and was forced into extra duty due to Benjamin's injury. While inconsistent, the rookie from Michigan still put up over 400 yards and scored five touchdowns. Funchess will enter 2016 with a full season of experience under his belt and will combine with Benjamin and Greg Olsen to give the 6-foot-5 Newton three 6-5 targets.
This passing game will improve organically, any additions will only speed that process up. That is a frightening thing for most NFL defenses that couldn't stop a weaponless Newton this year. The offense will improve and a great defense is returning. As long as Newton stays healthy, the Panthers are NFC favorites.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have more personnel questions to answer than the Panthers as they have a slew of unrestricted and restricted free agents to decide on. The good news is that the Denver secondary will return in full. DeMarcus Ware said he's coming back and Vonn Miller, be it through franchise tag or extension, will return to Denver for at least another season. And rookie Shane Rey remains available to give quality rest to those two star pass-rushers.
The rest of the linebacker corps and defensive line is a bit in flux. Linebackers Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevethan are due extensions as is Malik Jackson. These are the unheralded heroes of the defense, the guys that stopped the run and ate up interior lineman so the Broncos could drop as many defenders as possible back in pass coverage. Denver should find a way to return some of these players.
Of course the most popular question remains at quarterback. Will Peyton Manning retire? (Answer: yes) Will they re-sign Brock Osweiller? (Answer: yes) Whatever happens at quarterback, a few truths remain for the offense. The Broncos still have Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Both Manning and Osweiller, in different ways, will benefit from that duo. And Denver has an entire offseason to fix a injury-riddled offensive line. If I were GM John Elway, I would spend the first two draft picks on an offensive lineman and commit to the run entirely.
No matter what happens with the offense, this is clearly a defensive-minded team. The transition from a high-flying Manning-led offense to a defensive juggernaut wasn't pretty in 2015, but it led to a championship. That defense is returning its most important parts in 2016, and that has proven to be enough to get the job done come postseason play.
Pittsburgh Steelers
It's amazing to think the Pittsburgh Steelers won a playoff game despite the slew of missed time various offensive players amassed during the season. Due to suspension and injury, Le'Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams, Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown and Ben Roehtlisberger all missed games. Bell, Williams and Brown all did not play in the AFC Divisional matchup against the Broncos.
Of course, this isn't anything new. The Steelers offense is high-octane but frail. Roethlisberger can't make it to the end of a season without suffering some kind of injury. Bell, one of the best running backs in the league for the last three years, has yet to play in a playoff game. Ruling a team out just because of the likelihood of injury is unfair. If the Steelers offense enters the 2016 playoffs completely healthy, they will be near unstoppable.
Even if the Steelers offense isn't 100 percent, the defense actually showed some upside in 2015. Their linebacker corps is fast and athletic, with three consecutive first round picks invested in Bud Dupree, Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones. They've retooled the defensive line to be one of the more underrated units in the league. There were games in 2015 where the defense carried the weight for the offense, notably in that brawl of a wildcard game with the Cincinnati Bengals. If the defense continues to improve in 2016, the Steelers might be able to absorb some injuries in the offense come playoffs.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots path to the Super Bowl is very simple. Keep Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski healthy. Anyone who doubts the Patriots will be in contention mix next year is foolish.
Yes there are some questions to answer, like replacing defensive leader Jerod Mayo and finding a way to account for the forfeiture of their first-round draft pick. But haven't we asked similar questions about the Patriots for nearly 15 years? I will continue to believe in the Patriots until they are mathematically eliminated from the postseason.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers started the season down one Jordy Nelson. Eddie Lacy started the season overweight and battled injuries the entire year. Despite missing both his favorite target and reliable running back, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 6-0 start. Green Bay went 4-6 in the last ten games and ended up ceding control of the NFC North to the Minnesota Vikings.
It's an amazing testament to Rodgers' talent that the Packers still won ten games this year. Assuming Lacy and Nelson start 2016 healthy, this offense will be completely fine next season. The Packers continue to invest on the defensive side, using high draft picks on defensive players in the last three years.
Look for the Packers to continue to go defense in the offseason. The biggest need is finding a reliable middle linebacker so Clay Matthews can move back to the outside. Matthews put up 66 tackles and 6.5 sacks in 2015 while playing middle linebacker. Statistically, that's a down year. If Matthews can slide back to the outside linebacker and resume his status as one of the best defensive players in the league, the Packers will improve internally.
The Packers are a great example of the mercurial status of the NFL. Green Bay has both a former Offensive MVP and a former Defensive MVP on the roster (only Carolina can currently make the same claim), and yet the Packers have made just one Super Bowl appearance since drafting Rodgers.
Predicting what is going to happen in the NFL postseason 11 months out is extremely hard. The Packers were favorites to win the NFC six weeks into the season, and then couldn't even win the division. Baltimore, Atlanta, Indianapolis and Miami all had high expectations at the start of 2015 and were sitting at home at the end of Week 17. So what's my early Super Bowl 51 prediction? Who knows.