NFL Mock Draft 2016
/Here is my attempt at the ancient ritual of predicting the first round of the NFL Draft. I didn't include any potential trades because that just turns into a fantasy draft. So here's what I think each team is going to do in the first round. Just don't hold me accountable when my predictions look like a huge disaster after five picks on Thursday night.
1. Los Angeles Rams
Jared Goff, QB, California: You don't sacrifice multiple drafts to not draft a quarterback. Clearly, the Rams are sold on either Goff or small-school QB Carson Wentz. Wentz has the high upside, while Goff has some intangibles that make him ready to start as a rookie. His ability against the blitz is a big selling point. For a team moving across the country and into a new stadium, take the California kid.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State: See the previous pick. You don't sacrifice multiple drafts to not take a quarterback. So the Eagles must feel good about both Goff and Wentz. Either that or they know who the Rams want. Wentz is raw with the best throwing ability of the quarterbacks. The concerns come with the nature of playing college football for a school in North Dakota. Wentz hasn't exactly proven himself against blue-chip NFL prospects. But the physical traits make him deserving of one of these top two spots.
3. San Diego Chargers
Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss: In all reality, the Chargers should, and likely will, go defense with this pick. They lack any amount of playmakers, and that hole gets even larger with Eric Weddle departing. That being said, this team lives and dies by Phillip Rivers. As long as Rivers is gaming, the Chargers have a chance. Tunsil was the projected No. 1 pick just two weeks ago before the quarterback thirst began. He'll provides a great bodyguard for Rivers and could help open up a run game that was non-existent last year despite drafting Melvin Gordon in the first round.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State: Every year, a couple good teams dip into the top 10, take a playmaker and then return back to the playoffs. The Cowboys look like one of those teams. And with the first three picks addressing quarterback issues, Dallas gets to choose the best overall player on the board. Who that player is, is up for debate, as there are a few defensive players gunning for that title. Jerry Jones drafting Bosa seems like a Jerry Jones move. He's an instant starter who can replace Greg Hardy (thank goodness) and gets to thrive in a 4-3 setting.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jalen Ramsey, CB/S, Florida State: With the offense young and ascending, the Jaguars should go defense with every pick this year. That starts with the insanely athletic Ramsey, who turned heads multiple times at the Combine with bests in the vertical and broad jumps. He's not the most sound cornerback in the draft, but he's definitely the most athletic and played both safety and corner at FSU. Think Tyrann Mathieu with more athleticism. That's a really good thing to have.
6. Baltimore Ravens
Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame: The Ravens are a team of principal, constantly staying true to their board. There are a couple of defensive players still available that the Ravens might like more than Stanley. Eugene Monroe, Ricky Wagner, and James Hurst all underperformed at the tackle positions. Teaming Stanley up with the best interior offensive line in the league would give the Ravens a line that could move mountains.
7. San Francisco 49ers
DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon: I feel bad for the 49ers. The six teams picking ahead of them are all better than San Francisco, yet here they sit at No. 7, with no quarterback worth taking and two of the studs already off the board. Buckner can be a great player, but his raw ability might not get the attention it needs to develop with a struggling team like San Francisco. The 6'-7" Buckner is a versatile lineman with enough speed to rush the edge and the size to stuff the middle. He would have been a first round pick last year but decided to return for a senior year at Oregon. That meant facing an entire season of double-teams and Buckner still posted 10.5 sacks.
8. Cleveland Browns
Myles Jack, LB, UCLA: The Browns are marching to their own beat of late. No team in the league should take their cues from Cleveland when it comes to quarterbacks, but the Browns have a pretty strong, negative opinion about this year's quarterback class. As in, Robert Griffin III is a better option than Goff or Wentz. We'll have to wait and see about that one.
When you forget about the quarterback position, drafting for the Browns is really easy. They have holes everywhere. Jack is a player the Browns have never had in the expansion era: a star inside linebacker. He's fast enough to play on the outside and strong enough against the run to play on the inside. The only question about Jack is the health of his knee. If the knee is healthy, Cleveland drafts a Pro-Bowler.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida: Hargreaves rounds out the elite group of talent at the top of the draft. There's a thickening line of uncertainty after this pick, as scouting reports get more muddled. That being said, Hargreaves is the best pure-cornerback in the draft. He's played on an island for three years at Florida and has excelled. In terms of fundamentals, Hargreaves is the best of this class without a doubt.
10. New York Giants
A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama: The Giants are one of the great mysteries of this draft. The offense isn't really good, but what can they do with this pick to upgrade that side? I don't think they can. So why not grab the best run-stopper in the draft? Robinson was a one-man interior wrecking crew for the championship Crimson Tide. The similarities of his impact and that of Malik Jackson's on the Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos is uncanny.
11. Chicago Bears
Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State: The Bears continue to tread the waters of mediocrity with an odd mixture of bloated contracts and young talent. With Kevin White ready to step into a starting role opposite Alshon Jeffery, and with no Matt Forte, the Bears need the good version of Jake Cutler to show up. Conklin is the definition of a quarterback's bodyguard, with a noted penchant for physical play.
12. New Orleans Saints
Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville: The Saints have to go defense. They have been historically terrible for two years running. Most think this pick will be used to shore up the defensive line in some way, as the Saints allowed almost 5 yards per carry last year.
13. Miami Dolphins
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State: It's hard for me to slot in Elliot anywhere in the first round, because I don't see the value in taking a running back so highly. The shelf-life is too short and the risk too high. But from all reports, Elliott isn't getting past this spot. Elliot is a great every-down back and could replace Lamar Miller perfectly. That being said, this is a team with secondary, linebacker and offensive line issues. Running back shouldn't be a priority.
14. Oakland Raiders
Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia: This is more of a fantasy pick than an accurate projection of what might happen. The Raiders, while on the up, still have plenty of holes to plug on that defense. There's a very noticeable Charles Woodson-sized gap in the secondary. But pairing Floyd, a pure speed rusher, with Khalil Mack, Bruce Irvin and Aldon Smith (when he plays) is too tempting to pass up. It could give Oakland an unbeatable unit.
15. Tennessee Titans
Laquon Treadwell, WR, Mississippi: About five picks too late for Jack Conklin, and maybe five picks too early for Taylor Decker, the Titans traded down into a bad spot to achieve their primary goal of the first round: protect Marcus Mariota. So instead, the Titans will have to explore other ways to help out their young quarterback. Treadwell's combine performance has caused a bit of fall out of top-ten. But that's also out of need. The teams picking 9-14 have all taken a first round wide receiver in the last two drafts. Treadwell should be available if the Titans want him.
16. Detroit Lions
Josh Doctson, WR, TCU: Regardless of Calvin Johnson's performances the past couple seasons, his presence will be sorely missed in Detroit. The Lions could certainly go defense, but the need for an athletic pass-catcher is too apparent. They need to give Matthew Stafford some help. And at 6'-4" with crazy athletic catches on his resume, Doctson could ease the loss of Megatron.
17. Atlanta Falcons
Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama: Rule of thumb for the 2016 NFL Draft: if a team wants a defensive lineman, one will be available at any pick. Reed's draft stock is rising as a complete run-stuffing lineman. The Falcons could not stop the run last year. That has to be unacceptable to Dan Quinn.
18. Indianapolis Colts
Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State: Call me crazy, but I really do think the Colts might find a way to take Elliott. Because they do dumb things like that every year (see: Trent Richardson, see: Phillip Dorsett). But they have Andrew Luck, so things will mostly be OK. And the Colts need to keep their star quarterback healthy and allow less hits to their franchise player. If the Colts think they can solve this problem later in the draft, they could take a litany of defensive players to plug their various needs on that side of the ball.
19. Buffalo Bills
Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama: Cut the cameras to Paxton Lynch here. The next few teams all could justify taking a project quarterback and it's late enough in the draft for other teams to trade back in. That being said, Rex Ryan loves Tyrod Taylor. So I see Ryan continuing to build the New York Jets 2.0 and add his enforcer in Ragaland. He could easily take a starting job from signed free-agent Zach Brown.
20. New York Jets
Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky: Ryan Fitzpatrick remains unsigned. Clearly the Jets are taking a hard look at what signal callers might fall to them at this pick. Paxton Lynch does make a lot of sense for the long term plan, but this is a team operating in the short term, what with 32 year-old Brandon Marshall, 29 year-old Eric Decker, and 30 year-old Matt Forte being the featured trio of your offense. It would make the most sense to bring back Fitzpatrick and continue to add talent to a nasty defense. If Spence stayed at Ohio State and didn't have the character concerns, we might have been talking about him instead of Bosa at the top of this draft.
21. Washington
Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State: The Redskins could be in play for a wide-receiver, but Jay Gruden seems to value athletes on the defensive side. Lee is definitely that, with plenty of physical ability but not a lot of experience. Getting him at this spot would be a good value.
22. Houston Texans
Shaq Lawson, DE/OLB, Clemson: The Texans have made their statement at QB with the Brock Osweiler. They could stand to upgrade their secondary, but giving J.J. Watt a partner on the front-seven makes the most sense. It seems foolish to wait around for Jadeveon Clowney to develop into that role with Lawson available at this pick.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor: Picking out large areas of need for the Vikings is getting harder each year. Teddy Bridgewater led the team to the playoffs, but didn't really make a leap in his sophomore year. Pairing Coleman with Stefon Diggs gives Bridgewater a good pass-catching duo and could set the Vikings offense to take a big step forward.
24. Cincinnati Bengals
Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame: The Bengals need to address their wide receiver corps after losing second and third options in Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones. Fuller is a burner that can take advantage of the single teams A.J. Green allows the No. 2 option. That being said, Fuller can run fast and not much else. The Bengals might look to beef up the line or go defense here if that is a big a concern.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers
Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State: With a high-octane offense, the Steelers should continue to add a defense that can keep up. Apple would be ready to start on an aging secondary and would make a nice pair with William Gay.
26. Seattle Seahawks
Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama: Kelly seems to be a lock to be a solid NFL player. The Seahawks will absolutely take an offensive lineman. The unit was a huge liability last year after trading away Max Unger. And now they enter 2016 without Russell Okung at tackle. I think Seattle is looking to trade out of the first round in order to address multiple spots on the line, perhaps with a team interested in grabbing Lynch.
27. Green Bay Packers
Andrew Billings, NT, Baylor: Finding a way to move Clay Matthews back to the outside is a definite priority for the Packers, but replacing BJ Raji is more pressing. Billings is shooting up draft boards and is an absolute monster stuffer in the 3-4.
28. Kansas City Chiefs
Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson: If a cornerback like William Jackson is available, it would be hard to pass up pairing him with reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Marcus Peters. That being said, Kevin Dodd has the potential to turn into a sack-artist. With Justin Houston and Tamba Hali struggling to stay on the field, adding another pass rusher would be a smart idea.
29. Arizona Cardinals
Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss: Character concerns have already cost Nkemdiche millions of dollars in draft position. The Cardinals are a well-run organization with a great leader in Bruce Arians that had no problem taking Tyran Mathieu despite all the red flags. Nkemdiche is a crazy talent that can be used in a number of ways. This could be one of the steals of the draft.
30. Carolina Panthers
William Jackson III, CB, Houston: A strength has quickly been an area of concern for the Panthers, with the release of Josh Norman less than a week before the draft. I don't necesarily think the Panthers will take a cornerback regardless of who is available, but Jackson would probably be the the highest ranked player Carolina's board at this point.
31. Denver Broncos
Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis: If Lynch gets to this position, he's gone. Replacing Brock Osweiler with a quarterback like Lynch is too perfect to pass up. That being said, There should be a lot of teams exploring ways to get Lynch before Denver has a chance.